Compendium › Marcus Reversal › TSLA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TSLA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 2 trades in period

+10.69%
Last Month Return
$15,506.52
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$14,009.29
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:23:26

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 27.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 27.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,009.29
Current Value
$15,506.52
Period P&L
$1,497.20
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
42.89

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
2 / 0
Best Trade
+5.43%
Worst Trade
+5.18%
Avg Trade Return
+5.31%
Avg Hold Time
14.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$57,953.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,497.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,497.20
Gross Return
+10.69%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,009.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET $353.56 39 $13,788.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $372.76 39 $14,537.64 $14,758.12 +$748.80
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $360.98 40 $14,439.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:00pm ET $379.69 40 $15,187.80 $15,506.52 +$748.40
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,506.52
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,506.52
Total Return: +55.07%
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