Compendium › Marcus Reversal › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-09 to present • 5 trades in period

-7.56%
Last Month Return
$10,105.44
Current Value
20%
Win Rate
$10,932.07
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 07:35:08

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.2/35
Total Return
2.6/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 8.6/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 7.8

30-Day Momentum

2
-7.6%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,932.07
Current Value
$10,105.44
Period P&L
$-826.66
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.42

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+5.62%
Worst Trade
-3.67%
Avg Trade Return
-1.50%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$103,036.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-826.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-826.66
Gross Return
-7.56%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,932.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET $58.59 186 $10,897.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:20am ET $56.68 186 $10,542.48 $10,576.84 $-355.26
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET $57.10 185 $10,564.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $55.39 185 $10,247.15 $10,259.56 $-317.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $56.47 181 $10,220.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $54.39 181 $9,844.95 $9,884.35 $-375.21
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $55.40 178 $9,860.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $58.51 178 $10,414.78 $10,438.82 +$554.47
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $59.37 175 $10,388.88 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 175 $10,055.50 $10,105.44 $-333.38
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,105.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$105.44
Total Return: +1.05%
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