Compendium › Marcus Reversal › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 25 trades in period

-28.31%
Last Month Return
$292.96
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$201.85
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality 3.0/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 3.0

30-Day Momentum

10
-10.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
24
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,243
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
33 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$201.85
Current Value
$292.96
Period P&L
$-57.14
Max Drawdown
-96.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
9 / 16
Best Trade
+5.68%
Worst Trade
-3.83%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$14,028.92
Estimated Fees
$35.07
Gross P&L
$-57.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-92.21
Gross Return
-28.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-45.68%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 33 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $201.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 23, 2026 11:20am ET $1.49 209 $312.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET $1.45 209 $302.75 $302.75 $-10.98
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:10pm ET $1.47 207 $302.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 5:10pm ET $1.42 207 $293.17 $293.17 $-11.07
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 5:25pm ET $1.43 206 $293.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $1.38 206 $284.27 $284.27 $-10.35
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $1.39 205 $284.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:25am ET $1.46 205 $298.82 $298.82 +$13.09
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.46 205 $298.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 5:35am ET $1.41 205 $289.51 $289.51 $-10.78
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 5:40am ET $1.41 205 $289.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:40pm ET $1.37 205 $280.57 $280.57 $-10.36
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9h held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 2:45pm ET $1.37 205 $280.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 4:55am ET $1.33 205 $272.11 $272.11 $-9.84
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 5:00am ET $1.33 205 $272.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET $1.40 205 $286.48 $286.48 +$12.97
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 6:20pm ET $1.45 197 $286.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 8:35am ET $1.41 197 $277.23 $277.23 $-10.65
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 8:40am ET $1.42 196 $277.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 6:35am ET $1.37 196 $268.56 $268.56 $-10.04
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 8:35am ET $1.37 196 $268.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 7:05am ET $1.32 196 $260.06 $260.06 $-9.83
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 7:10am ET $1.32 197 $260.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET $1.39 197 $273.19 $273.19 +$11.80
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:05am ET $1.39 196 $273.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 2:55pm ET $1.35 196 $264.81 $264.81 $-9.73
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 6:35pm ET $1.35 197 $264.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:20pm ET $1.42 197 $278.22 $278.22 +$12.06
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 5:25pm ET $1.45 191 $278.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:10am ET $1.41 191 $269.26 $269.26 $-10.33
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:15am ET $1.40 192 $269.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET $1.35 192 $258.94 $258.94 $-11.64
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.4h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:45pm ET $1.32 196 $258.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 4:20pm ET $1.28 196 $250.39 $250.39 $-9.82
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 4:25pm ET $1.28 196 $250.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $1.34 196 $263.06 $263.06 +$11.38
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:40pm ET $1.40 188 $263.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 4:45am ET $1.47 188 $276.65 $276.65 +$12.24
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 8:10am ET $1.48 186 $276.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 6:05pm ET $1.56 186 $291.31 $291.31 +$13.24
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 8:10pm ET $1.53 190 $291.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:40pm ET $1.62 190 $307.86 $307.86 +$15.06
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 1:25am ET $1.61 191 $307.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 8:05am ET $1.56 191 $297.90 $297.90 $-11.47
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 8:10am ET $1.57 190 $297.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $1.51 190 $287.76 $287.76 $-11.61
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET $1.52 189 $287.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 4:50am ET $1.47 189 $279.00 $279.00 $-10.18
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 4:55am ET $1.48 189 $279.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 8:30pm ET $1.55 189 $292.96 $292.96 +$12.53
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $292.96
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,707.04
Total Return: -97.07%
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