AMZN Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 46 trades in period
-5.89%
Last Year Return
$15,191.23
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$16,142.47
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.8/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
32.6/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 31.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,734
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$16,142.47
Current Value
$15,191.23
Period P&L
$-951.26
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
17 /
29
Best Trade
+8.14%
Worst Trade
-9.00%
Avg Trade Return
-0.03%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,517,492.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-951.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-951.26
Gross Return
-5.89%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,142.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 11:55am ET | $219.86 | 73 | $16,049.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $213.20 | 73 | $15,563.60 | $15,656.69 |
$-485.82 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 11:00am ET | $215.93 | 72 | $15,546.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $226.92 | 72 | $16,338.35 | $16,448.17 |
+$791.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 3:50pm ET | $228.78 | 71 | $16,243.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $247.40 | 71 | $17,565.05 | $17,769.84 |
+$1,321.67 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $250.23 | 71 | $17,766.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:55am ET | $242.36 | 71 | $17,207.56 | $17,211.07 |
$-558.77 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:55am ET | $238.89 | 72 | $17,200.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $231.64 | 72 | $16,678.08 | $16,689.07 |
$-522.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $226.54 | 73 | $16,537.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:50am ET | $219.10 | 73 | $15,994.31 | $16,145.95 |
$-543.11 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:30am ET | $223.98 | 72 | $16,126.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:45pm ET | $216.74 | 72 | $15,605.28 | $15,624.83 |
$-521.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:20am ET | $225.08 | 69 | $15,530.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:55am ET | $236.41 | 69 | $16,312.36 | $16,406.67 |
+$781.84 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:30pm ET | $231.86 | 70 | $16,229.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:55am ET | $224.35 | 70 | $15,704.50 | $15,881.32 |
$-525.35 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 12:55pm ET | $222.02 | 71 | $15,763.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $233.29 | 71 | $16,563.59 | $16,681.49 |
+$800.17 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $232.58 | 71 | $16,513.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $244.27 | 71 | $17,343.26 | $17,511.57 |
+$830.08 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.70 | 71 | $17,302.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:35pm ET | $236.29 | 71 | $16,776.24 | $16,985.10 |
$-526.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:20pm ET | $238.29 | 71 | $16,918.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $230.98 | 71 | $16,399.23 | $16,465.74 |
$-519.37 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $234.25 | 70 | $16,397.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.30 | 70 | $17,240.65 | $17,308.89 |
+$843.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $240.72 | 71 | $17,090.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $233.42 | 71 | $16,572.83 | $16,790.96 |
$-517.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:50pm ET | $223.09 | 75 | $16,731.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.01 | 75 | $15,226.12 | $15,285.33 |
$-1,505.62 (-9.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $209.32 | 73 | $15,280.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $208.92 | 73 | $15,250.98 | $15,255.95 |
$-29.38 (-0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $199.96 | 76 | $15,196.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $210.36 | 76 | $15,987.35 | $16,046.34 |
+$790.39 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $204.36 | 78 | $15,940.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $215.37 | 78 | $16,798.86 | $16,905.12 |
+$858.78 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $217.00 | 77 | $16,709.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $209.60 | 77 | $16,139.20 | $16,335.32 |
$-569.80 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $213.96 | 76 | $16,261.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $207.49 | 76 | $15,769.24 | $15,843.22 |
$-492.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $213.25 | 74 | $15,780.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $206.54 | 74 | $15,283.96 | $15,346.68 |
$-496.54 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $206.23 | 74 | $15,261.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $199.84 | 74 | $14,788.16 | $14,873.82 |
$-472.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET | $200.85 | 74 | $14,862.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $211.04 | 74 | $15,616.96 | $15,627.88 |
+$754.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $209.28 | 74 | $15,486.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $223.99 | 74 | $16,575.26 | $16,716.42 |
+$1,088.54 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $231.21 | 72 | $16,647.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $245.23 | 72 | $17,656.57 | $17,725.87 |
+$1,009.45 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.33 | 71 | $17,560.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.88 | 71 | $18,451.48 | $18,616.92 |
+$891.05 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $262.09 | 71 | $18,608.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $275.25 | 71 | $19,542.75 | $19,551.28 |
+$934.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $273.87 | 71 | $19,444.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $264.94 | 71 | $18,810.74 | $18,917.25 |
$-634.03 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 10:35am ET | $267.24 | 70 | $18,706.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $257.88 | 70 | $18,051.25 | $18,261.70 |
$-655.55 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $263.01 | 69 | $18,147.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $254.78 | 69 | $17,579.82 | $17,694.17 |
$-567.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $256.04 | 69 | $17,666.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $248.35 | 69 | $17,136.15 | $17,163.56 |
$-530.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $251.26 | 68 | $17,085.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $243.70 | 68 | $16,571.60 | $16,649.21 |
$-514.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET | $243.62 | 68 | $16,566.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $236.20 | 68 | $16,061.60 | $16,144.65 |
$-504.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $235.73 | 68 | $16,029.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.03 | 68 | $16,866.04 | $16,981.05 |
+$836.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.18 | 69 | $16,848.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $236.68 | 69 | $16,331.26 | $16,463.55 |
$-517.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $238.76 | 68 | $16,235.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $226.23 | 68 | $15,383.64 | $15,611.51 |
$-852.04 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $230.10 | 67 | $15,416.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $242.52 | 67 | $16,248.84 | $16,443.64 |
+$832.13 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $239.50 | 68 | $16,286.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $251.73 | 68 | $17,117.55 | $17,275.19 |
+$831.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $253.63 | 68 | $17,246.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.17 | 68 | $16,603.56 | $16,631.91 |
$-643.28 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:10pm ET | $250.86 | 66 | $16,556.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $243.27 | 66 | $16,055.82 | $16,130.97 |
$-500.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 2:15pm ET | $234.04 | 68 | $15,914.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $226.53 | 68 | $15,404.04 | $15,620.63 |
$-510.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 11:40am ET | $266.65 | 58 | $15,465.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $284.51 | 58 | $16,501.63 | $16,656.27 |
+$1,035.64 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $277.88 | 59 | $16,394.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $269.32 | 59 | $15,889.88 | $16,151.23 |
$-505.04 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $267.49 | 60 | $16,049.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $259.45 | 60 | $15,567.00 | $15,668.83 |
$-482.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $260.27 | 60 | $15,616.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $252.31 | 60 | $15,138.60 | $15,191.23 |
$-477.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,191.23
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,191.23
Total Return:
+51.91%