IBM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 50 trades in period
-10.19%
Last Year Return
$13,457.24
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$14,983.65
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.7/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
30.1/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 29.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,403
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$14,983.65
Current Value
$13,457.24
Period P&L
$-1,526.42
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
22 /
28
Best Trade
+6.54%
Worst Trade
-22.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,607,023.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,526.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,526.42
Gross Return
-10.19%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.19%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,983.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 11:00am ET | $269.73 | 55 | $14,835.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:30am ET | $283.34 | 55 | $15,583.70 | $15,599.11 |
+$748.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 3:45pm ET | $286.39 | 54 | $15,465.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:55am ET | $300.79 | 54 | $16,242.66 | $16,376.71 |
+$777.60 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 12:15pm ET | $289.72 | 56 | $16,224.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 2:45pm ET | $280.80 | 56 | $15,724.72 | $15,877.11 |
$-499.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $272.83 | 58 | $15,823.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:00am ET | $286.70 | 58 | $16,628.60 | $16,681.86 |
+$804.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 1:25pm ET | $305.63 | 54 | $16,503.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $296.42 | 54 | $16,006.41 | $16,184.43 |
$-497.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 12:15pm ET | $307.79 | 52 | $16,005.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $324.07 | 52 | $16,851.41 | $17,030.72 |
+$846.28 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $311.91 | 54 | $16,843.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $299.90 | 54 | $16,194.47 | $16,382.05 |
$-648.67 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $303.14 | 54 | $16,369.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $293.15 | 54 | $15,830.32 | $15,842.80 |
$-539.24 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $289.66 | 54 | $15,641.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:50am ET | $304.19 | 54 | $16,425.99 | $16,627.17 |
+$784.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 10:20am ET | $301.85 | 55 | $16,601.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:20am ET | $304.13 | 55 | $16,726.88 | $16,752.49 |
+$125.32 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 3:50pm ET | $305.82 | 54 | $16,514.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 12:45pm ET | $296.28 | 54 | $15,998.85 | $16,237.06 |
$-515.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $289.68 | 56 | $16,221.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.37 | 56 | $17,156.44 | $17,171.70 |
+$934.64 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.39 | 56 | $16,933.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $293.00 | 56 | $16,408.00 | $16,645.86 |
$-525.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $298.12 | 55 | $16,396.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.36 | 55 | $17,454.80 | $17,704.33 |
+$1,058.48 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:30pm ET | $314.15 | 56 | $17,592.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $302.85 | 56 | $16,959.60 | $17,071.53 |
$-632.80 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $284.02 | 60 | $17,041.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $298.30 | 60 | $17,898.00 | $17,928.03 |
+$856.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $294.99 | 60 | $17,699.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $285.99 | 60 | $17,159.40 | $17,387.73 |
$-540.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $259.47 | 67 | $17,384.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $251.04 | 67 | $16,819.68 | $16,822.92 |
$-564.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $231.09 | 72 | $16,638.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $243.00 | 72 | $17,496.00 | $17,680.44 |
+$857.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $235.97 | 74 | $17,461.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $248.72 | 74 | $18,405.28 | $18,623.94 |
+$943.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $253.59 | 73 | $18,512.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $245.70 | 73 | $17,936.10 | $18,047.97 |
$-575.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $246.75 | 73 | $18,012.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $238.76 | 73 | $17,429.48 | $17,464.52 |
$-583.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $238.40 | 73 | $17,403.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $231.16 | 73 | $16,874.68 | $16,935.64 |
$-528.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:30am ET | $239.79 | 70 | $16,784.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.46 | 70 | $17,882.20 | $18,032.89 |
+$1,097.25 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $253.63 | 71 | $18,007.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.82 | 71 | $16,388.22 | $16,413.38 |
$-1,619.51 (-9.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $227.53 | 72 | $16,382.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $220.52 | 72 | $15,877.44 | $15,908.66 |
$-504.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $212.60 | 74 | $15,732.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $225.50 | 74 | $16,687.00 | $16,863.26 |
+$954.60 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.26 | 76 | $16,815.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $234.90 | 76 | $17,852.02 | $17,899.33 |
+$1,036.07 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $256.96 | 69 | $17,730.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $247.18 | 69 | $17,055.59 | $17,224.88 |
$-674.45 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $265.12 | 64 | $16,967.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $278.78 | 64 | $17,841.92 | $18,099.12 |
+$874.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:20pm ET | $317.13 | 57 | $18,076.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $307.36 | 57 | $17,519.24 | $17,542.23 |
$-556.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $302.88 | 57 | $17,264.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $291.62 | 57 | $16,622.34 | $16,900.41 |
$-641.82 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $283.10 | 59 | $16,702.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET | $273.80 | 59 | $16,154.21 | $16,351.72 |
$-548.69 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $274.18 | 59 | $16,176.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $265.52 | 59 | $15,665.68 | $15,840.78 |
$-510.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $270.61 | 58 | $15,695.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $262.40 | 58 | $15,219.49 | $15,364.89 |
$-475.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 11:05am ET | $245.65 | 62 | $15,230.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.50 | 62 | $16,213.00 | $16,347.59 |
+$982.70 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $257.99 | 63 | $16,253.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $271.28 | 63 | $17,090.64 | $17,184.86 |
+$837.27 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $272.92 | 62 | $16,920.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $286.85 | 62 | $17,784.70 | $18,048.83 |
+$863.97 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $298.12 | 60 | $17,887.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.37 | 60 | $17,122.05 | $17,283.68 |
$-765.15 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $290.68 | 59 | $17,150.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $226.30 | 59 | $13,351.70 | $13,485.26 |
$-3,798.42 (-22.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $215.59 | 62 | $13,366.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.16 | 62 | $12,782.22 | $12,900.90 |
$-584.36 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.56 | 59 | $12,718.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.03 | 59 | $12,332.77 | $12,515.62 |
$-385.28 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.14 | 62 | $12,470.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $211.96 | 62 | $13,141.21 | $13,186.15 |
+$670.53 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $215.59 | 61 | $13,150.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 12:35pm ET | $226.45 | 61 | $13,813.45 | $13,848.61 |
+$662.46 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $227.40 | 60 | $13,644.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $220.56 | 60 | $13,233.60 | $13,438.21 |
$-410.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $226.46 | 59 | $13,361.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $237.80 | 59 | $14,030.20 | $14,107.27 |
+$669.06 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $235.41 | 59 | $13,889.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $228.25 | 59 | $13,466.75 | $13,684.83 |
$-422.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.67 | 59 | $13,609.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $242.35 | 59 | $14,298.36 | $14,373.66 |
+$688.83 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.20 | 58 | $14,279.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $238.03 | 58 | $13,805.98 | $13,900.04 |
$-473.62 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $234.15 | 59 | $13,814.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $226.64 | 59 | $13,371.76 | $13,457.24 |
$-442.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,457.24
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,457.24
Total Return:
+34.57%