MS Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 39 trades in period
+1.15%
Last Year Return
$12,007.42
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$11,871.02
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
20
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
20.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 20.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,217
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
261 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,871.02
Current Value
$12,007.42
Period P&L
$136.40
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
16 /
23
Best Trade
+7.57%
Worst Trade
-4.90%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
7.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$940,003.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$136.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$136.40
Gross Return
+1.15%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.15%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 261 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,871.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 11:10am ET | $159.86 | 74 | $11,829.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 9:55am ET | $154.94 | 74 | $11,465.56 | $11,506.94 |
$-364.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 1:50pm ET | $156.61 | 73 | $11,432.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $151.88 | 73 | $11,087.24 | $11,162.01 |
$-344.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $153.59 | 72 | $11,058.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $164.76 | 72 | $11,862.72 | $11,966.25 |
+$804.24 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 12:30pm ET | $162.01 | 73 | $11,826.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $170.37 | 73 | $12,437.01 | $12,576.53 |
+$610.28 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
26.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $168.73 | 74 | $12,486.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $160.46 | 74 | $11,874.04 | $11,964.55 |
$-611.99 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $163.22 | 73 | $11,915.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 10:00am ET | $158.02 | 73 | $11,535.73 | $11,585.22 |
$-379.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:30am ET | $164.46 | 70 | $11,511.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 1:45pm ET | $159.20 | 70 | $11,144.00 | $11,217.37 |
$-367.85 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $158.24 | 70 | $11,076.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $166.66 | 70 | $11,666.20 | $11,806.77 |
+$589.40 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:40pm ET | $169.57 | 69 | $11,700.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:45am ET | $178.38 | 69 | $12,308.22 | $12,414.66 |
+$607.89 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 12:35pm ET | $178.96 | 69 | $12,347.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:10pm ET | $173.50 | 69 | $11,971.50 | $12,038.25 |
$-376.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 2:00pm ET | $176.83 | 68 | $12,024.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $185.77 | 68 | $12,632.36 | $12,646.17 |
+$607.92 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $186.33 | 67 | $12,484.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $180.72 | 67 | $12,108.24 | $12,270.30 |
$-375.87 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $191.39 | 64 | $12,248.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.51 | 64 | $11,808.65 | $11,829.99 |
$-440.31 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $182.96 | 64 | $11,709.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.10 | 64 | $11,334.40 | $11,454.95 |
$-375.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $180.18 | 63 | $11,351.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $181.98 | 63 | $11,464.74 | $11,568.35 |
+$113.40 (+1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $171.10 | 67 | $11,463.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.02 | 67 | $11,056.34 | $11,160.99 |
$-407.36 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET | $175.48 | 63 | $11,055.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $169.77 | 63 | $10,695.82 | $10,801.57 |
$-359.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $167.75 | 64 | $10,736.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.52 | 64 | $10,401.28 | $10,466.85 |
$-334.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $167.87 | 62 | $10,407.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $162.83 | 62 | $10,095.37 | $10,154.28 |
$-312.57 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $157.20 | 64 | $10,060.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.34 | 64 | $10,581.76 | $10,675.24 |
+$520.96 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.63 | 65 | $10,570.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $157.72 | 65 | $10,251.80 | $10,356.09 |
$-319.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $164.50 | 62 | $10,199.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.96 | 62 | $10,971.52 | $11,128.61 |
+$772.52 (+7.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $176.74 | 62 | $10,957.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.49 | 62 | $11,686.38 | $11,857.11 |
+$728.50 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $189.14 | 62 | $11,726.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.95 | 62 | $11,962.59 | $12,093.02 |
+$235.91 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $190.30 | 63 | $11,989.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $200.04 | 63 | $12,602.52 | $12,706.33 |
+$613.31 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $201.47 | 63 | $12,692.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $211.63 | 63 | $13,333.00 | $13,346.72 |
+$640.39 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.06 | 62 | $13,209.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $206.16 | 62 | $12,781.92 | $12,918.92 |
$-427.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $206.93 | 62 | $12,829.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $219.23 | 62 | $13,591.95 | $13,681.21 |
+$762.29 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 12:35pm ET | $226.03 | 60 | $13,561.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $215.45 | 60 | $12,926.70 | $13,046.11 |
$-635.10 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:00pm ET | $213.32 | 61 | $13,012.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $224.18 | 61 | $13,674.98 | $13,708.57 |
+$662.46 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $220.02 | 62 | $13,641.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $231.74 | 62 | $14,367.88 | $14,435.21 |
+$726.64 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $227.25 | 63 | $14,316.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $218.34 | 63 | $13,755.11 | $13,873.57 |
$-561.64 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $217.10 | 63 | $13,677.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $210.40 | 63 | $13,255.20 | $13,451.47 |
$-422.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $218.45 | 61 | $13,325.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $211.34 | 61 | $12,891.74 | $13,017.76 |
$-433.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $213.79 | 60 | $12,827.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $206.60 | 60 | $12,396.00 | $12,586.36 |
$-431.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 2:00pm ET | $209.74 | 60 | $12,584.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $220.35 | 60 | $13,221.00 | $13,222.96 |
+$636.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 11:55am ET | $216.62 | 61 | $13,213.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $210.06 | 61 | $12,813.66 | $12,823.10 |
$-399.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $214.65 | 59 | $12,664.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $207.50 | 59 | $12,242.50 | $12,401.25 |
$-421.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $206.88 | 59 | $12,205.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $200.21 | 59 | $11,812.10 | $12,007.42 |
$-393.83 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,007.42
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,007.42
Total Return:
+20.07%