MSFT Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 35 trades in period
+10.86%
Last Year Return
$18,468.53
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$16,659.48
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.0/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
42.8/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 38.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,015
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$16,659.48
Current Value
$18,468.53
Period P&L
$1,809.03
Max Drawdown
-21.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
14 /
21
Best Trade
+14.26%
Worst Trade
-3.64%
Avg Trade Return
+0.37%
Avg Hold Time
8.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,074,506.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,809.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,809.03
Gross Return
+10.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,659.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 11:45am ET | $514.28 | 32 | $16,456.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:45am ET | $523.09 | 32 | $16,738.88 | $17,087.97 |
+$282.08 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 3:20pm ET | $522.46 | 32 | $16,718.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $503.47 | 32 | $16,110.88 | $16,480.13 |
$-607.84 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $496.48 | 33 | $16,383.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $481.30 | 33 | $15,882.90 | $15,979.20 |
$-500.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 1:15pm ET | $471.47 | 33 | $15,558.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $486.18 | 33 | $16,043.78 | $16,464.46 |
+$485.27 (+3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $485.34 | 33 | $16,016.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $470.55 | 33 | $15,528.23 | $15,976.47 |
$-487.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $473.58 | 33 | $15,628.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:35pm ET | $458.24 | 33 | $15,121.92 | $15,470.25 |
$-506.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $458.01 | 33 | $15,114.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $444.25 | 33 | $14,660.09 | $15,016.01 |
$-454.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $450.00 | 33 | $14,849.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $473.40 | 33 | $15,622.20 | $15,788.37 |
+$772.36 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $432.00 | 36 | $15,552.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.55 | 36 | $14,995.98 | $15,232.35 |
$-556.02 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $413.27 | 36 | $14,877.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $400.74 | 36 | $14,426.64 | $14,781.27 |
$-451.08 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $393.15 | 37 | $14,546.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $412.90 | 37 | $15,277.30 | $15,512.02 |
+$730.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $416.28 | 37 | $15,402.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $403.73 | 37 | $14,938.01 | $15,047.67 |
$-464.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $398.99 | 37 | $14,762.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $386.39 | 37 | $14,296.61 | $14,581.47 |
$-466.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $396.89 | 36 | $14,288.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $384.38 | 36 | $13,837.68 | $14,131.11 |
$-450.36 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $382.57 | 36 | $13,772.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $370.56 | 36 | $13,340.16 | $13,698.93 |
$-432.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $370.13 | 37 | $13,694.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $358.77 | 37 | $13,274.31 | $13,278.43 |
$-420.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET | $360.89 | 36 | $12,992.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.69 | 36 | $13,848.84 | $14,135.23 |
+$856.80 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $367.11 | 38 | $13,950.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $387.63 | 38 | $14,729.94 | $14,915.10 |
+$779.87 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $411.71 | 36 | $14,821.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $432.56 | 36 | $15,572.16 | $15,665.70 |
+$750.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:05pm ET | $418.64 | 37 | $15,489.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $404.39 | 37 | $14,962.43 | $15,138.45 |
$-527.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $413.32 | 36 | $14,879.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $439.48 | 36 | $15,821.28 | $16,080.39 |
+$941.94 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
27.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 1:40pm ET | $458.79 | 35 | $16,057.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $444.92 | 35 | $15,572.20 | $15,595.12 |
$-485.27 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $431.89 | 36 | $15,547.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $418.79 | 36 | $15,076.44 | $15,123.70 |
$-471.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET | $409.36 | 36 | $14,736.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.54 | 36 | $14,203.44 | $14,590.18 |
$-533.52 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $384.43 | 37 | $14,223.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $371.82 | 37 | $13,757.16 | $14,123.43 |
$-466.75 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $373.10 | 37 | $13,804.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $360.31 | 37 | $13,331.47 | $13,650.20 |
$-473.23 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:55am ET | $374.04 | 36 | $13,465.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $393.19 | 36 | $14,154.84 | $14,339.59 |
+$689.39 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $382.69 | 37 | $14,159.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $403.52 | 37 | $14,930.24 | $15,110.30 |
+$770.71 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $391.10 | 38 | $14,861.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $379.30 | 38 | $14,413.40 | $14,661.90 |
$-448.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $382.34 | 38 | $14,528.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.88 | 38 | $16,601.25 | $16,734.23 |
+$2,072.33 (+14.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.00 | 37 | $16,650.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $476.93 | 37 | $17,646.41 | $17,730.64 |
+$996.41 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $481.45 | 36 | $17,332.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $506.69 | 36 | $18,240.84 | $18,639.28 |
+$908.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $500.83 | 37 | $18,530.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $485.74 | 37 | $17,972.56 | $18,081.14 |
$-558.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $484.68 | 37 | $17,933.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $511.13 | 37 | $18,911.81 | $19,059.61 |
+$978.47 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $509.01 | 37 | $18,833.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $493.04 | 37 | $18,242.30 | $18,468.53 |
$-591.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,468.53
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,468.53
Total Return:
+84.69%