NFLX Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 39 trades in period
-31.69%
Last Year Return
$20,472.33
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$29,968.37
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.3/35
Total Return
16.8/25
Win Rate
3.6/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
39.4/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 38.1
30-Day Momentum
0
-2.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,160
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$29,968.37
Current Value
$20,472.33
Period P&L
$-9,496.06
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
14 /
25
Best Trade
+11.34%
Worst Trade
-12.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.81%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,784,433.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-9,496.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-9,496.06
Gross Return
-31.69%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.69%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $29,968.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2025 12:00pm ET | $120.23 | 245 | $29,457.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 9:45am ET | $116.51 | 245 | $28,545.44 | $28,665.47 |
$-911.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 9:45am ET | $114.50 | 250 | $28,625.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $120.30 | 250 | $30,075.25 | $30,115.22 |
+$1,449.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 3:45pm ET | $123.19 | 244 | $30,057.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 11:35am ET | $119.42 | 244 | $29,138.24 | $29,195.95 |
$-919.27 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 2:55pm ET | $124.15 | 235 | $29,175.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.10 | 235 | $26,812.56 | $26,833.26 |
$-2,362.69 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 11:20am ET | $110.51 | 242 | $26,743.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 3:10pm ET | $116.14 | 242 | $28,106.12 | $28,196.21 |
+$1,362.94 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $113.18 | 249 | $28,182.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:55pm ET | $109.59 | 249 | $27,287.91 | $27,302.05 |
$-894.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.97 | 243 | $27,209.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $108.61 | 243 | $26,391.02 | $26,483.19 |
$-818.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:00am ET | $105.00 | 252 | $26,458.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $100.40 | 252 | $25,300.80 | $25,325.25 |
$-1,157.94 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $98.12 | 258 | $25,314.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $94.95 | 258 | $24,497.13 | $24,507.41 |
$-817.83 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:10pm ET | $94.23 | 260 | $24,499.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $91.24 | 260 | $23,721.10 | $23,728.79 |
$-778.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $91.65 | 258 | $23,644.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $88.61 | 258 | $22,860.09 | $22,944.47 |
$-784.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $89.69 | 255 | $22,869.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.18 | 255 | $21,210.90 | $21,285.69 |
$-1,658.78 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:25am ET | $83.89 | 253 | $21,222.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $81.36 | 253 | $20,585.34 | $20,648.13 |
$-637.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $80.63 | 256 | $20,641.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $81.42 | 256 | $20,842.24 | $20,849.10 |
+$200.96 (+1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $82.20 | 253 | $20,796.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $79.64 | 253 | $20,148.41 | $20,200.91 |
$-648.19 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.53 | 267 | $20,166.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.44 | 267 | $21,210.48 | $21,244.88 |
+$1,043.97 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $84.60 | 251 | $21,234.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.19 | 251 | $23,642.37 | $23,652.65 |
+$2,407.77 (+11.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $96.31 | 245 | $23,596.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $93.18 | 245 | $22,827.88 | $22,884.16 |
$-768.49 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $91.08 | 251 | $22,862.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:25pm ET | $95.66 | 251 | $24,010.66 | $24,032.49 |
+$1,148.33 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $92.82 | 258 | $23,946.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $97.67 | 258 | $25,198.86 | $25,285.05 |
+$1,252.56 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $98.63 | 256 | $25,248.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET | $103.62 | 256 | $26,527.79 | $26,564.84 |
+$1,279.79 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $105.72 | 251 | $26,535.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $96.05 | 251 | $24,109.05 | $24,138.17 |
$-2,426.67 (-9.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $96.14 | 251 | $24,131.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:30am ET | $93.25 | 251 | $23,407.00 | $23,414.03 |
$-724.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $93.22 | 251 | $23,399.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $90.39 | 251 | $22,686.64 | $22,701.19 |
$-712.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $92.04 | 246 | $22,643.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $89.21 | 246 | $21,944.43 | $22,002.55 |
$-698.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $87.76 | 250 | $21,940.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.32 | 250 | $21,078.75 | $21,141.30 |
$-861.25 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
26.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.77 | 255 | $21,106.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $80.22 | 255 | $20,457.37 | $20,491.74 |
$-649.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $80.79 | 253 | $20,439.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 1:20pm ET | $78.25 | 253 | $19,798.51 | $19,850.38 |
$-641.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $77.61 | 255 | $19,791.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $75.12 | 255 | $19,155.60 | $19,214.16 |
$-636.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $72.66 | 264 | $19,180.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $76.34 | 264 | $20,153.76 | $20,186.97 |
+$972.81 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $76.03 | 265 | $20,146.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $73.62 | 265 | $19,509.30 | $19,549.65 |
$-637.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $74.78 | 261 | $19,516.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.44 | 261 | $17,081.14 | $17,114.52 |
$-2,435.13 (-12.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.30 | 250 | $17,075.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.93 | 250 | $17,982.50 | $18,022.02 |
+$907.50 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.25 | 249 | $17,991.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $75.97 | 249 | $18,916.53 | $18,947.06 |
+$925.04 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $73.99 | 256 | $18,941.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $77.93 | 256 | $19,949.29 | $19,954.91 |
+$1,007.85 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $77.00 | 259 | $19,943.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:50am ET | $80.87 | 259 | $20,945.36 | $20,957.27 |
+$1,002.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $79.68 | 263 | $20,954.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.43 | 263 | $20,101.12 | $20,103.86 |
$-853.41 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $76.22 | 263 | $20,045.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $80.04 | 263 | $21,050.52 | $21,108.52 |
+$1,004.66 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:55am ET | $78.19 | 269 | $21,033.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $75.82 | 269 | $20,396.92 | $20,472.33 |
$-636.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,472.33
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,472.33
Total Return:
+104.72%