Compendium › Marcus Reversal › PEP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEP
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 23 trades in period

-4.02%
Last Year Return
$8,121.83
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$8,461.86
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:21:15

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
85.2 overbought
20d Trend
+19.9%
5d Trend
+9.7%
EMA20 Dist
+9.3%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
62.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 4.6/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 4.0

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,228
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$8,461.86
Current Value
$8,121.83
Period P&L
$-340.03
Max Drawdown
-23.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
9 / 14
Best Trade
+5.48%
Worst Trade
-4.10%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
14.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$406,535.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-340.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-340.03
Gross Return
-4.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,461.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 9:35am ET $142.21 59 $8,390.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 9:35am ET $148.94 59 $8,787.46 $8,871.32 +$397.07
(+4.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 10:20am ET $148.51 59 $8,762.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 3, 2025 10:25am ET $143.80 59 $8,484.20 $8,593.43 $-277.89
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 10:40am ET $143.34 59 $8,457.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET $150.59 59 $8,884.81 $9,021.18 +$427.75
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
29d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 9:45am ET $147.45 61 $8,994.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 9:40am ET $142.96 61 $8,720.55 $8,747.28 $-273.90
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 1:15pm ET $143.15 61 $8,732.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 11:30am ET $138.79 61 $8,466.19 $8,481.32 $-265.96
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $137.19 61 $8,368.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $144.29 61 $8,801.69 $8,914.42 +$433.10
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:15pm ET $146.33 60 $8,779.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $153.66 60 $9,219.60 $9,354.22 +$439.80
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $160.86 58 $9,329.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:50am ET $169.36 58 $9,822.88 $9,847.22 +$493.00
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET $166.88 59 $9,845.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $166.59 59 $9,828.81 $9,830.11 $-17.11
(-0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
4.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $164.57 59 $9,709.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $158.25 59 $9,336.75 $9,457.23 $-372.88
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:05am ET $160.08 59 $9,444.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $155.25 59 $9,159.75 $9,172.15 $-285.08
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 2:35pm ET $153.04 59 $9,029.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $158.50 59 $9,351.50 $9,494.29 +$322.14
(+3.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $154.94 61 $9,451.34 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 11:10am ET $150.20 61 $9,162.20 $9,205.15 $-289.14
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.1d held
14 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 2:05pm ET $151.76 60 $9,105.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:40am ET $146.77 60 $8,806.20 $8,905.75 $-299.40
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held
15 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:50am ET $148.65 59 $8,770.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 10:00am ET $143.89 59 $8,489.51 $8,624.62 $-281.13
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:00am ET $142.40 60 $8,544.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 12:50pm ET $138.02 60 $8,281.50 $8,362.12 $-262.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
28.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $136.42 61 $8,321.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:40am ET $143.61 61 $8,760.21 $8,800.71 +$438.59
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $142.74 61 $8,707.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $136.89 61 $8,350.29 $8,443.86 $-356.85
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $136.54 61 $8,328.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $144.02 61 $8,785.22 $8,900.14 +$456.28
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 1:15pm ET $144.50 61 $8,814.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:55am ET $139.94 61 $8,536.34 $8,621.98 $-278.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 12:50pm ET $139.59 61 $8,514.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $140.96 61 $8,598.26 $8,705.25 +$83.27
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 11:00am ET $139.76 62 $8,665.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $134.87 62 $8,361.94 $8,402.07 $-303.18
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $135.10 62 $8,375.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $130.57 62 $8,095.65 $8,121.83 $-280.24
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,121.83
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,878.17
Total Return: -18.78%
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