PYPL Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 46 trades in period
-3.31%
Last Year Return
$10,716.89
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$11,083.73
Period Start
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
7.6/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
15.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 14.9
30-Day Momentum
2
-7.9%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
27,545
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,083.73
Current Value
$10,716.89
Period P&L
$-366.84
Max Drawdown
-35.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
20 /
26
Best Trade
+17.51%
Worst Trade
-16.95%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
6.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$939,456.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-366.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-366.84
Gross Return
-3.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.31%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PYPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,083.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 10:40am ET | $67.22 | 162 | $10,888.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:50am ET | $71.13 | 162 | $11,523.06 | $11,564.86 |
+$634.23 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 11:15am ET | $67.86 | 170 | $11,536.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 11:40am ET | $71.26 | 170 | $12,114.17 | $12,142.83 |
+$577.97 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 11:45am ET | $73.46 | 165 | $12,120.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 1:05pm ET | $71.09 | 165 | $11,729.85 | $11,751.78 |
$-391.05 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $67.29 | 174 | $11,708.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $70.82 | 174 | $12,321.81 | $12,365.11 |
+$613.33 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 1:55pm ET | $70.83 | 174 | $12,324.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $75.59 | 174 | $13,152.66 | $13,193.35 |
+$828.24 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $70.99 | 185 | $13,133.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 1:00pm ET | $68.67 | 185 | $12,703.95 | $12,763.46 |
$-429.88 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 2:20pm ET | $68.00 | 187 | $12,716.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 2:20pm ET | $65.92 | 187 | $12,327.26 | $12,374.73 |
$-388.74 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 11:00am ET | $66.20 | 186 | $12,313.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $63.06 | 186 | $11,728.23 | $11,789.76 |
$-584.97 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 2:30pm ET | $61.83 | 190 | $11,747.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $59.29 | 190 | $11,264.15 | $11,306.21 |
$-483.55 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:35am ET | $58.30 | 193 | $11,250.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $61.47 | 193 | $11,863.71 | $11,918.98 |
+$612.77 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:00am ET | $61.82 | 192 | $11,869.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $59.93 | 192 | $11,506.56 | $11,556.10 |
$-362.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:55pm ET | $59.47 | 194 | $11,537.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $57.60 | 194 | $11,174.40 | $11,193.32 |
$-362.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.98 | 196 | $11,168.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $55.20 | 196 | $10,818.22 | $10,843.46 |
$-349.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $55.41 | 195 | $10,803.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.71 | 195 | $10,473.45 | $10,512.94 |
$-330.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $52.52 | 200 | $10,504.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.62 | 200 | $8,724.00 | $8,732.94 |
$-1,780.00 (-16.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.42 | 216 | $8,730.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $39.13 | 216 | $8,452.08 | $8,454.30 |
$-278.64 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $40.11 | 210 | $8,423.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $41.16 | 210 | $8,643.60 | $8,674.80 |
+$220.50 (+2.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $40.53 | 214 | $8,673.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.58 | 214 | $9,111.05 | $9,112.43 |
+$437.63 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $40.63 | 224 | $9,100.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $44.54 | 224 | $9,978.08 | $9,990.51 |
+$878.08 (+9.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $46.54 | 214 | $9,960.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $45.12 | 214 | $9,655.68 | $9,685.56 |
$-304.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:35pm ET | $45.87 | 211 | $9,677.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.23 | 211 | $9,332.53 | $9,340.30 |
$-345.26 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $45.41 | 205 | $9,309.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $44.04 | 205 | $9,028.20 | $9,059.43 |
$-280.87 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $44.06 | 205 | $9,031.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $46.27 | 205 | $9,485.35 | $9,513.51 |
+$454.08 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $44.66 | 213 | $9,512.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $46.90 | 213 | $9,988.64 | $9,989.57 |
+$476.06 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $48.09 | 207 | $9,954.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.54 | 207 | $10,461.78 | $10,496.72 |
+$507.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.42 | 204 | $10,489.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.61 | 204 | $10,120.44 | $10,127.48 |
$-369.24 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.10 | 202 | $10,120.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.24 | 202 | $9,138.48 | $9,145.76 |
$-981.72 (-9.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $46.41 | 197 | $9,142.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.89 | 197 | $8,843.33 | $8,846.34 |
$-299.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.96 | 196 | $8,812.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.54 | 196 | $8,533.84 | $8,568.02 |
$-278.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.90 | 195 | $8,561.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $42.56 | 195 | $8,298.23 | $8,304.77 |
$-263.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $42.97 | 193 | $8,294.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $41.60 | 193 | $8,027.84 | $8,038.43 |
$-266.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $41.09 | 195 | $8,012.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:40am ET | $43.19 | 195 | $8,421.08 | $8,446.96 |
+$408.53 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 1:55pm ET | $43.33 | 194 | $8,406.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.88 | 194 | $8,123.75 | $8,164.69 |
$-282.27 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.40 | 192 | $8,140.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.67 | 192 | $8,576.64 | $8,600.53 |
+$435.84 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $43.82 | 196 | $8,588.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.37 | 196 | $8,304.52 | $8,316.33 |
$-284.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:20pm ET | $44.42 | 187 | $8,305.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.00 | 187 | $8,789.00 | $8,799.72 |
+$483.39 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.76 | 188 | $8,790.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.95 | 188 | $10,330.60 | $10,339.44 |
+$1,539.72 (+17.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $57.33 | 180 | $10,320.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.58 | 180 | $10,004.40 | $10,023.54 |
$-315.90 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $56.31 | 178 | $10,022.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $59.25 | 178 | $10,546.50 | $10,547.75 |
+$524.21 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.89 | 185 | $10,524.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $59.74 | 185 | $11,052.82 | $11,075.92 |
+$528.17 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $58.53 | 189 | $11,062.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $61.49 | 189 | $11,621.61 | $11,635.36 |
+$559.44 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.03 | 193 | $11,585.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.16 | 193 | $10,259.88 | $10,309.45 |
$-1,325.91 (-11.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.28 | 193 | $10,283.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.09 | 193 | $10,825.37 | $10,851.78 |
+$542.33 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $54.63 | 198 | $10,817.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.99 | 198 | $10,491.03 | $10,525.08 |
$-326.70 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.08 | 206 | $10,521.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.65 | 206 | $11,051.90 | $11,055.53 |
+$530.45 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $54.10 | 204 | $11,036.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $52.44 | 204 | $10,697.76 | $10,716.89 |
$-338.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,716.89
Net Profit/Loss:
+$716.89
Total Return:
+7.17%