Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:28:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.3/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 37.2/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,988
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,974.35
Current Value
$15,350.87
Period P&L
$3,376.53
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
12 / 8
Best Trade
+8.20%
Worst Trade
-3.52%
Avg Trade Return
+1.33%
Avg Hold Time
15.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$545,979.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,376.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,376.53
Gross Return
+28.20%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,974.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2025 11:00am ET $596.74 20 $11,934.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET $608.77 20 $12,175.40 $12,220.94 +$240.70
(+2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 9:40am ET $610.53 20 $12,210.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $611.13 20 $12,222.60 $12,232.94 +$12.00
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:00am ET $582.10 21 $12,224.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET $612.93 21 $12,871.53 $12,880.37 +$647.43
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET $613.76 20 $12,275.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $618.50 20 $12,370.00 $12,975.17 +$94.80
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET $612.67 21 $12,865.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $621.00 21 $13,041.00 $13,150.21 +$175.04
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET $623.89 21 $13,101.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:45am ET $604.57 21 $12,695.97 $12,744.49 $-405.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 1:35pm ET $598.92 21 $12,577.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $615.05 21 $12,916.05 $13,083.22 +$338.73
(+2.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $598.59 21 $12,570.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:30am ET $589.52 21 $12,379.92 $12,892.75 $-190.47
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET $586.30 21 $12,312.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $568.35 21 $11,935.35 $12,515.80 $-376.95
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET $563.00 22 $12,386.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $609.17 22 $13,401.74 $13,531.54 +$1,015.74
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET $604.28 22 $13,294.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 2:30pm ET $634.62 22 $13,961.64 $14,199.02 +$667.48
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $637.82 22 $14,031.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $671.57 22 $14,774.54 $14,941.63 +$742.61
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held
13 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:20am ET $672.63 22 $14,797.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 10:25am ET $706.38 22 $15,540.36 $15,684.12 +$742.49
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
14 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $712.86 22 $15,682.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $690.97 22 $15,201.34 $15,202.52 $-481.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
29d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $695.94 21 $14,614.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $738.03 21 $15,498.63 $16,086.41 +$883.89
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:35am ET $737.92 21 $15,496.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $715.38 21 $15,022.98 $15,613.07 $-473.34
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $713.21 21 $14,977.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $688.11 21 $14,450.31 $15,085.97 $-527.10
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET $699.69 21 $14,693.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:35am ET $678.01 21 $14,238.21 $14,630.69 $-455.28
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:35am ET $670.30 21 $14,076.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $708.28 21 $14,873.88 $15,428.27 +$797.58
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET $722.91 21 $15,181.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:40am ET $719.22 21 $15,103.72 $15,350.87 $-77.40
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,350.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,350.87
Total Return: +53.51%
Back to Marcus Reversal