SPXU Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 48 trades in period
+23.18%
Last Year Return
$9,689.47
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$7,866.37
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 3.9
30-Day Momentum
0
-1.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,544
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
3 days with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-10-21 (28 candles), 2025-10-28 (38 candles), 2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$7,866.37
Current Value
$9,689.47
Period P&L
$1,823.10
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
22 /
26
Best Trade
+6.65%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$870,231.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,823.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,823.10
Gross Return
+23.18%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,866.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 3:20pm ET | $55.09 | 142 | $7,823.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 2:35pm ET | $53.38 | 142 | $7,579.96 | $7,622.97 |
$-243.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:30am ET | $52.82 | 144 | $7,606.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 12:40pm ET | $55.64 | 144 | $8,011.87 | $8,028.77 |
+$405.79 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 2:25pm ET | $54.50 | 147 | $8,011.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 1:10pm ET | $52.82 | 147 | $7,764.54 | $7,782.10 |
$-246.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:40am ET | $50.10 | 155 | $7,765.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 2:30pm ET | $52.68 | 155 | $8,165.46 | $8,182.06 |
+$399.96 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $50.44 | 162 | $8,171.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:15am ET | $53.06 | 162 | $8,596.04 | $8,606.83 |
+$424.76 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 12:05pm ET | $54.28 | 158 | $8,576.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:35am ET | $57.02 | 158 | $9,009.16 | $9,039.75 |
+$432.92 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.75 | 168 | $9,030.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:35am ET | $52.10 | 168 | $8,752.80 | $8,762.55 |
$-277.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $50.64 | 173 | $8,760.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET | $49.04 | 173 | $8,483.92 | $8,485.75 |
$-276.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 1:35pm ET | $50.56 | 167 | $8,443.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 1:45pm ET | $53.15 | 167 | $8,875.22 | $8,917.44 |
+$431.70 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $51.42 | 173 | $8,895.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:50pm ET | $49.84 | 173 | $8,622.34 | $8,644.12 |
$-273.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:20pm ET | $49.32 | 175 | $8,631.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET | $47.82 | 175 | $8,367.63 | $8,380.74 |
$-263.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 3:35pm ET | $47.87 | 175 | $8,377.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $50.28 | 175 | $8,799.00 | $8,802.49 |
+$421.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $49.35 | 178 | $8,784.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $47.76 | 178 | $8,501.87 | $8,520.06 |
$-282.43 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $47.15 | 180 | $8,487.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $49.70 | 180 | $8,946.00 | $8,978.34 |
+$458.28 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $50.19 | 178 | $8,933.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $48.63 | 178 | $8,656.14 | $8,700.66 |
$-277.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $47.21 | 184 | $8,686.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $47.31 | 184 | $8,705.04 | $8,719.06 |
+$18.40 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $49.94 | 174 | $8,690.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.25 | 174 | $8,395.50 | $8,424.30 |
$-294.76 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $48.68 | 173 | $8,422.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.67 | 173 | $8,938.91 | $8,940.93 |
+$516.63 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $49.66 | 180 | $8,938.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.65 | 180 | $9,477.00 | $9,479.11 |
+$538.18 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $53.22 | 178 | $9,472.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $51.43 | 178 | $9,154.54 | $9,161.38 |
$-317.73 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $51.58 | 177 | $9,129.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $54.18 | 177 | $9,589.86 | $9,621.56 |
+$460.18 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $53.20 | 180 | $9,576.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.52 | 180 | $10,173.60 | $10,218.98 |
+$597.42 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.55 | 183 | $10,165.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $58.36 | 183 | $10,679.88 | $10,733.21 |
+$514.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.91 | 179 | $10,723.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $57.79 | 179 | $10,344.41 | $10,353.73 |
$-379.48 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $55.18 | 187 | $10,318.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $58.00 | 187 | $10,845.81 | $10,880.88 |
+$527.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.92 | 198 | $10,873.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.19 | 198 | $9,937.82 | $9,944.93 |
$-935.95 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $50.10 | 198 | $9,919.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.55 | 198 | $9,612.39 | $9,637.71 |
$-307.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $46.56 | 206 | $9,592.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $45.08 | 206 | $9,285.45 | $9,330.77 |
$-306.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $43.16 | 216 | $9,322.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.77 | 216 | $9,022.32 | $9,030.60 |
$-300.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $41.60 | 217 | $9,027.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $40.29 | 217 | $8,742.93 | $8,746.31 |
$-284.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $39.26 | 222 | $8,715.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 222 | $8,442.66 | $8,473.25 |
$-273.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $38.31 | 221 | $8,466.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $37.10 | 221 | $8,199.10 | $8,205.84 |
$-267.41 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $37.17 | 220 | $8,178.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $36.06 | 220 | $7,932.10 | $7,959.44 |
$-246.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $36.51 | 217 | $7,923.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $38.38 | 217 | $8,329.54 | $8,365.23 |
+$405.79 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $37.95 | 220 | $8,349.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $40.20 | 220 | $8,844.00 | $8,860.23 |
+$495.00 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $40.22 | 220 | $8,848.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $38.88 | 220 | $8,553.60 | $8,565.47 |
$-294.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.90 | 232 | $8,559.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $38.74 | 232 | $8,987.68 | $8,993.51 |
+$428.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $36.99 | 243 | $8,988.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.45 | 243 | $9,586.35 | $9,591.29 |
+$597.78 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.50 | 249 | $9,586.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $37.33 | 249 | $9,296.41 | $9,300.96 |
$-290.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $37.06 | 251 | $9,300.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $38.93 | 251 | $9,771.43 | $9,771.59 |
+$470.63 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:40am ET | $37.84 | 258 | $9,762.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:40pm ET | $39.74 | 258 | $10,252.92 | $10,261.79 |
+$490.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:40pm ET | $38.01 | 269 | $10,224.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.81 | 269 | $9,901.89 | $9,939.02 |
$-322.77 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.21 | 282 | $9,929.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 11:50am ET | $34.11 | 282 | $9,619.02 | $9,628.82 |
$-310.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $34.05 | 282 | $9,602.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $33.01 | 282 | $9,308.96 | $9,335.68 |
$-293.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 2:45pm ET | $33.26 | 280 | $9,314.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $34.97 | 280 | $9,793.00 | $9,814.48 |
+$478.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $34.67 | 283 | $9,811.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $33.60 | 283 | $9,510.21 | $9,513.09 |
$-301.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $34.63 | 274 | $9,489.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $36.40 | 274 | $9,973.60 | $9,997.17 |
+$484.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:30pm ET | $35.57 | 281 | $9,995.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $34.47 | 281 | $9,687.47 | $9,689.47 |
$-307.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,689.47
Net Profit/Loss:
$-310.53
Total Return:
-3.11%