Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:04:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 27.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 27.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,204
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$12,141.23
Current Value
$15,506.52
Period P&L
$3,365.26
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
62
Winners / Losers
28 / 34
Best Trade
+7.35%
Worst Trade
-9.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.50%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,679,937.24
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,365.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,365.26
Gross Return
+27.72%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 62 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,141.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2025 1:35pm ET $428.03 28 $11,984.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 10:10am ET $450.67 28 $12,618.76 $12,747.99 +$633.95
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 11:45am ET $444.99 28 $12,459.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 10:10am ET $431.42 28 $12,079.76 $12,368.17 $-379.82
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET $445.49 27 $12,028.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2025 9:30am ET $428.46 27 $11,568.42 $11,908.49 $-459.68
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 9, 2025 9:40am ET $429.44 27 $11,594.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 1:05pm ET $416.28 27 $11,239.54 $11,553.16 $-355.34
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $422.70 27 $11,412.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 9:40am ET $444.73 27 $12,007.82 $12,148.08 +$594.92
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 1:35pm ET $445.02 27 $12,015.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 1:35pm ET $431.14 27 $11,640.69 $11,773.12 $-374.96
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET $440.09 26 $11,442.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 28, 2025 10:05am ET $462.40 26 $12,022.37 $12,353.16 +$580.03
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2025 11:05am ET $458.55 26 $11,922.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 10:20am ET $444.76 26 $11,563.88 $11,994.81 $-358.34
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 12:00pm ET $452.80 26 $11,772.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 11:35am ET $437.87 26 $11,384.52 $11,606.54 $-388.28
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 11:35am ET $426.09 27 $11,504.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 11:05am ET $448.06 27 $12,097.62 $12,199.73 +$593.19
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 11:05am ET $434.03 28 $12,152.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET $420.07 28 $11,761.96 $11,808.85 $-390.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 1:45pm ET $405.59 29 $11,762.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 10:00am ET $426.90 29 $12,380.10 $12,426.84 +$617.99
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:40am ET $387.52 32 $12,400.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $409.39 32 $13,100.48 $13,126.58 +$699.74
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET $410.64 31 $12,729.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET $432.08 31 $13,394.48 $13,791.22 +$664.64
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 1:50pm ET $427.86 32 $13,691.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET $449.91 32 $14,397.18 $14,496.88 +$705.66
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 11:55am ET $455.04 31 $14,106.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 10:50am ET $441.36 31 $13,682.16 $14,072.96 $-423.93
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 2:00pm ET $448.61 31 $13,906.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET $474.97 31 $14,724.07 $14,890.05 +$817.10
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $467.17 31 $14,482.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 3:50pm ET $490.71 31 $15,212.01 $15,619.79 +$729.74
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 2:30pm ET $483.91 32 $15,485.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $463.85 32 $14,843.16 $14,977.84 $-641.96
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET $456.39 32 $14,604.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $441.60 32 $14,131.20 $14,504.56 $-473.28
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 1:20pm ET $454.55 31 $14,091.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET $439.93 31 $13,637.83 $14,051.34 $-453.22
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET $434.79 32 $13,913.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $421.21 32 $13,478.72 $13,616.94 $-434.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $432.11 31 $13,395.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $418.69 31 $12,979.24 $13,200.70 $-416.24
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET $434.81 30 $13,044.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $415.36 30 $12,460.80 $12,617.20 $-583.50
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET $418.36 30 $12,550.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET $405.00 30 $12,150.00 $12,216.40 $-400.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET $395.85 30 $11,875.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $416.30 30 $12,489.00 $12,830.05 +$613.65
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $412.86 31 $12,798.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET $400.38 31 $12,411.78 $12,443.17 $-386.88
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET $403.17 30 $12,095.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $390.92 30 $11,727.60 $12,075.56 $-367.61
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
29 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $393.62 30 $11,808.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 10:05am ET $414.78 30 $12,443.40 $12,710.36 +$634.80
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
30 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 10:05am ET $401.10 31 $12,434.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $386.00 31 $11,966.00 $12,242.26 $-468.10
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
31 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $374.24 32 $11,975.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET $394.00 32 $12,608.00 $12,874.58 +$632.32
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
32 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET $380.83 33 $12,567.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $368.52 33 $12,161.32 $12,468.68 $-405.90
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
33 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:40pm ET $359.92 34 $12,237.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $378.69 34 $12,875.46 $13,106.69 +$638.01
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
34 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $364.39 35 $12,753.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET $353.29 35 $12,365.15 $12,718.20 $-388.49
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
35 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 11:30am ET $338.92 37 $12,540.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $363.84 37 $13,462.08 $13,640.24 +$922.04
(+7.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22h held
36 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET $344.43 39 $13,432.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:25am ET $361.87 39 $14,113.00 $14,320.47 +$680.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
37 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 1:30pm ET $387.96 36 $13,966.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET $408.67 36 $14,712.17 $15,066.20 +$745.73
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 12:25pm ET $388.60 38 $14,766.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $373.69 38 $14,200.22 $14,499.62 $-566.58
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
39 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $373.80 38 $14,204.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:10am ET $392.88 38 $14,929.25 $15,224.28 +$724.66
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
40 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:50am ET $392.89 38 $14,929.63 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $413.73 38 $15,721.74 $16,016.39 +$792.11
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
41 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 3:30pm ET $425.17 37 $15,731.29 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 2:25pm ET $447.24 37 $16,547.79 $16,832.89 +$816.50
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
42 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET $445.35 37 $16,477.77 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $429.74 37 $15,900.38 $16,255.51 $-577.38
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held
43 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $419.17 38 $15,928.27 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET $406.01 38 $15,428.43 $15,755.67 $-499.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
44 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:40am ET $414.72 37 $15,344.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $442.62 37 $16,376.85 $16,787.99 +$1,032.32
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
45 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:00am ET $436.70 38 $16,594.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:15am ET $422.20 38 $16,043.55 $16,236.75 $-551.24
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $420.90 38 $15,994.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:25am ET $406.31 38 $15,439.78 $15,682.33 $-554.42
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
47 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:25pm ET $409.26 38 $15,551.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $396.89 38 $15,081.82 $15,212.27 $-470.06
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
48 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:25am ET $385.61 39 $15,038.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $405.30 39 $15,806.70 $15,980.18 +$767.91
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
49 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $404.05 39 $15,758.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET $391.77 39 $15,279.03 $15,501.06 $-479.12
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
50 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 12:30pm ET $406.96 38 $15,464.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $391.91 38 $14,892.58 $14,929.16 $-571.90
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
51 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $380.76 39 $14,849.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:45am ET $400.14 39 $15,605.32 $15,684.84 +$755.68
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $427.88 36 $15,403.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET $413.79 36 $14,896.44 $15,177.78 $-507.06
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $414.96 36 $14,938.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 3:10pm ET $402.26 36 $14,481.36 $14,720.40 $-457.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
54 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:55pm ET $408.73 36 $14,714.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET $395.40 36 $14,234.58 $14,240.70 $-479.70
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
55 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $395.90 35 $13,856.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $381.29 35 $13,345.15 $13,729.35 $-511.35
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
56 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET $375.36 36 $13,512.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $340.16 36 $12,245.76 $12,462.15 $-1,267.20
(-9.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
57 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:30am ET $311.00 40 $12,440.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:20am ET $301.56 40 $12,062.40 $12,084.39 $-377.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
58 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET $302.61 39 $11,801.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET $318.12 39 $12,406.68 $12,689.47 +$605.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $321.95 39 $12,556.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $338.40 39 $13,197.60 $13,331.02 +$641.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $339.64 39 $13,245.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET $357.03 39 $13,924.26 $14,009.32 +$678.30
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET $353.56 39 $13,788.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $372.76 39 $14,537.64 $14,758.12 +$748.80
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
62 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $360.98 40 $14,439.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:00pm ET $379.69 40 $15,187.80 $15,506.52 +$748.40
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,506.52
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,506.52
Total Return: +55.07%
Back to Marcus Reversal