Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.2 oversold
20d Trend
-17.1%
5d Trend
-11.3%
EMA20 Dist
-10.7%
ATR%
4.7%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 3.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

4
+0.5%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.3 Conf: 0.70×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$3,667.22
Current Value
$4,507.69
Period P&L
$840.48
Max Drawdown
-45.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
10 / 8
Best Trade
+8.05%
Worst Trade
-6.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$149,522.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$840.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$840.48
Gross Return
+22.92%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ACN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $3,667.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 2:05pm ET $125.43 28 $3,512.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:00pm ET $132.22 28 $3,702.16 $3,814.07 +$190.12
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $134.40 28 $3,763.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $141.78 28 $3,969.84 $4,020.85 +$206.78
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $139.10 28 $3,894.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $130.40 28 $3,651.20 $3,777.39 $-243.46
(-6.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:45am ET $138.19 27 $3,731.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $132.17 27 $3,568.59 $3,614.85 $-162.54
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 2:00pm ET $137.40 26 $3,572.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $144.82 26 $3,765.32 $3,807.64 +$192.79
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $143.08 26 $3,720.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $137.91 26 $3,585.66 $3,673.22 $-134.42
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 12:20pm ET $145.29 25 $3,632.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $153.07 25 $3,826.75 $3,867.72 +$194.50
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $165.35 23 $3,803.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:20am ET $174.53 23 $4,014.24 $4,078.91 +$211.19
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 3:00pm ET $163.52 24 $3,924.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET $172.01 24 $4,128.36 $4,282.67 +$203.76
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:40am ET $163.46 26 $4,249.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:40am ET $172.85 26 $4,494.14 $4,526.85 +$244.18
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:20pm ET $178.46 25 $4,461.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:50am ET $172.97 25 $4,324.25 $4,389.60 $-137.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $175.68 24 $4,216.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:45am ET $185.55 24 $4,453.18 $4,626.46 +$236.86
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 1:10pm ET $185.08 24 $4,441.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:45am ET $194.43 24 $4,666.32 $4,850.86 +$224.40
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:50pm ET $187.97 25 $4,699.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $178.00 25 $4,450.00 $4,601.61 $-249.25
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET $177.07 25 $4,426.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $191.32 25 $4,783.12 $4,957.98 +$356.37
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:05pm ET $195.42 25 $4,885.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET $188.71 25 $4,717.83 $4,790.31 $-167.67
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 12:30pm ET $189.55 25 $4,738.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:55am ET $183.85 25 $4,596.25 $4,647.81 $-142.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:40am ET $185.85 25 $4,646.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:25am ET $180.24 25 $4,506.00 $4,507.69 $-140.12
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,507.69
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,492.31
Total Return: -54.92%
Back to Marcus Reversal