Compendium › Marcus Reversal › ADBE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ADBE
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 20 trades in period

+28.81%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,710.57
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$5,209.55
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 02:26:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

2
-11.4%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,209.55
Current Value
$6,710.57
Period P&L
$1,501.04
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
11 / 9
Best Trade
+7.15%
Worst Trade
-7.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.44%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$269,528.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,501.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,501.04
Gross Return
+28.81%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.81%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,209.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $193.16 26 $5,022.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $206.65 26 $5,373.03 $5,540.64 +$350.74
(+7.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $204.10 27 $5,510.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $217.38 27 $5,869.39 $5,899.47 +$358.83
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $215.46 27 $5,817.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:20am ET $226.78 27 $6,123.06 $6,205.24 +$305.77
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $214.09 28 $5,994.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $226.50 28 $6,342.00 $6,552.72 +$347.48
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 2:45pm ET $230.57 28 $6,456.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $221.16 28 $6,192.48 $6,289.10 $-263.62
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:30am ET $226.37 27 $6,111.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $238.25 27 $6,432.75 $6,609.86 +$320.76
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $229.34 28 $6,421.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET $221.88 28 $6,212.64 $6,400.98 $-208.88
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:35am ET $215.12 29 $6,238.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $225.96 29 $6,552.84 $6,715.34 +$314.36
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $240.51 27 $6,493.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:30am ET $252.80 27 $6,825.60 $7,047.04 +$331.70
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:05pm ET $261.37 26 $6,795.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $251.55 26 $6,540.30 $6,791.72 $-255.32
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $242.48 28 $6,789.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $259.82 28 $7,274.96 $7,277.38 +$485.66
(+7.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $250.63 29 $7,268.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:50am ET $263.73 29 $7,648.17 $7,657.28 +$379.90
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:35pm ET $272.01 28 $7,616.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $263.84 28 $7,387.52 $7,428.52 $-228.76
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:10am ET $258.90 28 $7,249.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $273.00 28 $7,644.00 $7,823.18 +$394.66
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $259.90 30 $7,797.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $251.63 30 $7,548.96 $7,575.14 $-248.04
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 3:15pm ET $265.57 28 $7,435.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 28 $7,817.04 $7,956.22 +$381.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $287.54 27 $7,763.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 27 $7,200.90 $7,393.50 $-562.72
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 28 $7,193.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $249.01 28 $6,972.42 $7,172.72 $-220.78
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:35pm ET $263.54 27 $7,115.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $254.30 27 $6,866.23 $6,923.37 $-249.35
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $246.90 28 $6,913.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $239.30 28 $6,700.40 $6,710.57 $-212.80
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,710.57
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,289.43
Total Return: -32.89%
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