Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AMD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 24 trades in period

+13.01%
Last 3 Months Return
$29,372.20
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$25,991.24
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
19.0/25
Win Rate
2.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 45.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 45.0

30-Day Momentum

55
+16.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 74.3 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$25,991.24
Current Value
$29,372.20
Period P&L
$3,380.96
Max Drawdown
-43.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
12 / 12
Best Trade
+7.26%
Worst Trade
-7.77%
Avg Trade Return
+0.85%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,216,141.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,380.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,380.96
Gross Return
+13.01%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.01%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $25,991.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:50am ET $519.30 47 $24,407.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $547.04 47 $25,711.11 $26,031.89 +$1,304.01
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $505.24 51 $25,767.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $531.26 51 $27,094.26 $27,358.91 +$1,327.02
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $557.30 49 $27,307.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $540.52 49 $26,485.24 $26,536.45 $-822.46
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 12:35pm ET $559.55 47 $26,298.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $516.08 47 $24,255.53 $24,493.13 $-2,043.32
(-7.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $504.00 48 $24,192.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $537.96 48 $25,822.08 $26,123.21 +$1,630.08
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:55am ET $547.03 47 $25,710.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $530.19 47 $24,918.93 $25,331.96 $-791.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $553.60 45 $24,912.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:25am ET $530.20 45 $23,859.00 $24,278.96 $-1,053.00
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:25am ET $508.80 47 $23,913.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:45pm ET $492.23 47 $23,134.58 $23,499.94 $-779.02
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:25pm ET $495.41 47 $23,284.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $526.10 47 $24,726.93 $24,942.60 +$1,442.66
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $527.34 47 $24,784.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 11:05am ET $554.70 47 $26,070.89 $26,228.51 +$1,285.91
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 11:10am ET $542.58 48 $26,043.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET $518.86 48 $24,905.28 $25,089.83 $-1,138.68
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:55am ET $508.60 49 $24,921.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET $488.52 49 $23,937.72 $24,106.15 $-983.68
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:25am ET $444.79 54 $24,018.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET $430.11 54 $23,226.21 $23,313.70 $-792.45
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 11:35am ET $484.00 48 $23,232.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $509.48 48 $24,454.80 $24,536.50 +$1,222.80
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $463.71 52 $24,112.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $489.36 52 $25,446.72 $25,870.30 +$1,333.80
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.5h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $484.67 53 $25,687.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $465.90 53 $24,692.96 $24,875.75 $-994.55
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 11:50am ET $486.60 51 $24,816.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $512.38 51 $26,131.13 $26,190.27 +$1,314.52
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $488.00 53 $25,864.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET $468.69 53 $24,840.57 $25,166.84 $-1,023.43
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:45am ET $460.91 54 $24,889.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET $485.17 54 $26,199.18 $26,476.88 +$1,310.04
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $472.70 56 $26,471.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $457.10 56 $25,597.32 $25,603.00 $-873.88
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $443.55 57 $25,282.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $468.24 57 $26,689.80 $27,010.72 +$1,407.72
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $507.13 53 $26,877.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $485.79 53 $25,746.61 $25,879.43 $-1,131.29
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET $504.61 51 $25,735.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $534.35 51 $27,251.85 $27,396.17 +$1,516.74
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:55am ET $544.36 50 $27,217.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $583.88 50 $29,194.00 $29,372.20 +$1,976.03
(+7.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $29,372.20
Net Profit/Loss: +$19,372.20
Total Return: +193.72%
Back to Marcus Reversal