Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:25:06

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
2.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 37.1/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 36.1

30-Day Momentum

3
-9.8%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,476.16
Current Value
$16,463.55
Period P&L
$987.37
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+7.03%
Worst Trade
-3.50%
Avg Trade Return
+0.60%
Avg Hold Time
5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$478,962.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$987.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$987.37
Gross Return
+6.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,476.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:50am ET $206.23 74 $15,261.02
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $199.84 74 $14,788.16 $14,873.82 $-472.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET $200.85 74 $14,862.90
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET $211.04 74 $15,616.96 $15,627.88 +$754.06
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $209.28 74 $15,486.72
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $223.99 74 $16,575.26 $16,716.42 +$1,088.54
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 1:15pm ET $231.21 72 $16,647.12
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $245.23 72 $17,656.57 $17,725.87 +$1,009.45
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $247.33 71 $17,560.43
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $259.88 71 $18,451.48 $18,616.92 +$891.05
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET $262.09 71 $18,608.39
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:45am ET $275.25 71 $19,542.75 $19,551.28 +$934.36
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
7 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $273.87 71 $19,444.77
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:40am ET $264.94 71 $18,810.74 $18,917.25 $-634.03
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 10:35am ET $267.24 70 $18,706.80
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:15am ET $257.88 70 $18,051.25 $18,261.70 $-655.55
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:40pm ET $263.01 69 $18,147.35
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET $254.78 69 $17,579.82 $17,694.17 $-567.53
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $256.04 69 $17,666.76
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 1:05pm ET $248.35 69 $17,136.15 $17,163.56 $-530.61
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:15pm ET $251.26 68 $17,085.95
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $243.70 68 $16,571.60 $16,649.21 $-514.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $243.62 68 $16,566.16
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET $236.20 68 $16,061.60 $16,144.65 $-504.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:45am ET $235.73 68 $16,029.64
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $248.03 68 $16,866.04 $16,981.05 +$836.40
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $244.18 69 $16,848.76
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET $236.68 69 $16,331.26 $16,463.55 $-517.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,463.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,463.55
Total Return: +64.64%
Back to Marcus Reversal