Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:14

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.8/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 32.6/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 31.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,611.49
Current Value
$15,191.23
Period P&L
$-420.28
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+6.70%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
-0.72%
Avg Hold Time
6.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$321,093.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-420.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-420.28
Gross Return
-2.69%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,611.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:55am ET $238.76 68 $16,235.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $226.23 68 $15,383.64 $15,611.51 $-852.04
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $230.10 67 $15,416.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET $242.52 67 $16,248.84 $16,443.64 +$832.13
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:55am ET $239.50 68 $16,286.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:35am ET $251.73 68 $17,117.55 $17,275.19 +$831.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:20pm ET $253.63 68 $17,246.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $244.17 68 $16,603.56 $16,631.91 $-643.28
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:10pm ET $250.86 66 $16,556.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 1:20pm ET $243.27 66 $16,055.82 $16,130.97 $-500.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 2:15pm ET $234.04 68 $15,914.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $226.53 68 $15,404.04 $15,620.63 $-510.34
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 11:40am ET $266.65 58 $15,465.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET $284.51 58 $16,501.63 $16,656.27 +$1,035.64
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $277.88 59 $16,394.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET $269.32 59 $15,889.88 $16,151.23 $-505.04
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:05am ET $267.49 60 $16,049.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $259.45 60 $15,567.00 $15,668.83 $-482.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 2:00pm ET $260.27 60 $15,616.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:45am ET $252.31 60 $15,138.60 $15,191.23 $-477.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,191.23
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,191.23
Total Return: +51.91%
Back to Marcus Reversal