Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:50

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.1/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 27.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 27.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,751.61
Current Value
$14,577.34
Period P&L
$1,825.73
Max Drawdown
-26.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+6.38%
Worst Trade
-3.55%
Avg Trade Return
+1.60%
Avg Hold Time
8.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$230,097.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,825.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,825.73
Gross Return
+14.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,751.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $76.89 165 $12,686.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET $80.74 165 $13,322.10 $13,387.68 +$636.07
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:45pm ET $81.86 163 $13,343.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $78.96 163 $12,869.67 $12,914.17 $-473.51
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $81.53 158 $12,881.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $78.90 158 $12,466.20 $12,498.63 $-415.54
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:15pm ET $79.01 158 $12,484.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $76.60 158 $12,102.80 $12,117.06 $-381.57
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $75.39 160 $12,061.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET $72.82 160 $11,651.20 $11,706.66 $-410.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $71.26 164 $11,686.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $75.55 164 $12,390.20 $12,410.22 +$703.56
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 12:15pm ET $76.62 161 $12,335.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:45am ET $80.56 161 $12,970.16 $13,044.56 +$634.34
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:50am ET $80.35 162 $13,016.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $84.44 162 $13,679.28 $13,707.14 +$662.58
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $84.72 161 $13,639.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $90.13 161 $14,510.13 $14,577.34 +$870.20
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,577.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,577.34
Total Return: +45.77%
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