Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:58:16

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 37.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 37.1

30-Day Momentum

35
+14.0%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.1 Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,072.77
Current Value
$20,022.12
Period P&L
$-50.64
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
12 / 17
Best Trade
+11.80%
Worst Trade
-8.27%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,084,073.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-50.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-50.64
Gross Return
-0.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $20,072.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET $373.53 55 $20,544.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $361.16 55 $19,863.68 $19,888.93 $-680.47
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:35pm ET $349.80 56 $19,588.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $334.97 56 $18,758.32 $19,058.73 $-830.20
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $314.27 60 $18,856.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:10am ET $331.14 60 $19,868.40 $20,070.63 +$1,011.90
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 11:30am ET $353.49 56 $19,795.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $340.11 56 $19,046.44 $19,321.63 $-749.00
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:55am ET $327.43 59 $19,318.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $317.40 59 $18,726.60 $18,729.86 $-591.77
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 12:35pm ET $326.95 57 $18,636.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.93 57 $17,438.01 $17,531.72 $-1,198.14
(-6.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:10am ET $298.40 58 $17,307.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $325.53 58 $18,880.75 $19,104.98 +$1,573.26
(+9.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $324.03 58 $18,793.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $301.93 58 $17,512.23 $17,823.47 $-1,281.51
(-6.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET $282.95 62 $17,542.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:35am ET $273.70 62 $16,969.40 $17,249.97 $-573.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:35am ET $257.24 67 $17,235.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $244.04 67 $16,350.66 $16,365.55 $-884.42
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET $269.86 60 $16,191.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $285.53 60 $17,131.80 $17,305.75 +$940.20
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $280.48 61 $17,109.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET $271.72 61 $16,574.92 $16,771.39 $-534.36
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $254.01 66 $16,764.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 3:30pm ET $267.44 66 $17,651.04 $17,657.44 +$886.05
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:40am ET $240.88 73 $17,583.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $230.45 73 $16,822.67 $16,896.24 $-761.20
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 11:35am ET $234.76 71 $16,667.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $258.32 71 $18,340.72 $18,569.00 +$1,672.76
(+10.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $222.71 83 $18,484.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET $235.74 83 $19,566.82 $19,651.23 +$1,082.23
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $274.58 71 $19,494.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET $288.97 71 $20,516.64 $20,673.04 +$1,021.81
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:40am ET $279.00 74 $20,646.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET $269.50 74 $19,943.00 $19,970.04 $-703.00
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 12:55pm ET $267.79 74 $19,816.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $281.51 74 $20,831.74 $20,985.32 +$1,015.28
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:45am ET $277.87 75 $20,840.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $256.07 75 $19,205.36 $19,350.43 $-1,634.89
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET $250.08 77 $19,256.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $236.73 77 $18,228.36 $18,322.38 $-1,028.05
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 12:45pm ET $242.58 75 $18,193.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $255.20 75 $19,139.63 $19,268.51 +$946.13
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET $248.80 77 $19,157.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:35pm ET $241.29 77 $18,579.71 $18,690.62 $-577.89
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $235.00 79 $18,565.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $252.35 79 $19,935.65 $20,061.27 +$1,370.65
(+7.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $262.44 76 $19,945.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $252.10 76 $19,159.60 $19,275.43 $-785.84
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:55pm ET $264.23 72 $19,024.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $242.38 72 $17,451.36 $17,702.23 $-1,573.20
(-8.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET $246.14 71 $17,475.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET $260.13 71 $18,469.23 $18,695.52 +$993.29
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 12:10pm ET $265.63 70 $18,594.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $296.97 70 $20,787.90 $20,889.32 +$2,193.80
(+11.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:00pm ET $331.42 63 $20,879.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $317.65 63 $20,012.26 $20,022.12 $-867.20
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,022.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,022.12
Total Return: +100.22%
Back to Marcus Reversal