Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 19.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 19.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.5%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,007.13
Current Value
$11,770.74
Period P&L
$-2,236.39
Max Drawdown
-27.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.27

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
4 / 11
Best Trade
+5.81%
Worst Trade
-4.59%
Avg Trade Return
-1.04%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$381,673.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,236.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,236.39
Gross Return
-15.97%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,007.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $381.77 36 $13,743.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $368.25 36 $13,257.00 $13,380.01 $-486.54
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:20pm ET $372.20 35 $13,027.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $360.67 35 $12,623.45 $12,976.37 $-403.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $366.46 35 $12,826.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:00am ET $385.14 35 $13,479.90 $13,630.17 +$653.80
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $401.19 33 $13,239.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $388.00 33 $12,804.00 $13,194.90 $-435.27
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $392.77 33 $12,961.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $379.44 33 $12,521.52 $12,754.85 $-440.05
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $358.47 35 $12,546.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 1:05pm ET $376.76 35 $13,186.60 $13,395.00 +$640.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:15pm ET $380.79 35 $13,327.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $402.92 35 $14,102.03 $14,169.38 +$774.38
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $414.42 34 $14,090.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET $399.80 34 $13,593.27 $13,672.37 $-497.01
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 1:55pm ET $395.98 34 $13,463.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET $384.01 34 $13,056.34 $13,265.56 $-406.81
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET $369.81 35 $12,943.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:20am ET $358.41 35 $12,544.35 $12,866.56 $-399.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:35am ET $363.19 35 $12,711.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET $352.28 35 $12,329.78 $12,484.69 $-381.87
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $367.74 33 $12,135.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $350.86 33 $11,578.38 $11,927.65 $-557.04
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 11:35am ET $355.34 33 $11,726.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $344.27 33 $11,360.75 $11,562.18 $-365.47
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $341.63 33 $11,273.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $359.63 33 $11,867.63 $12,156.18 +$594.00
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET $359.67 33 $11,869.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $347.99 33 $11,483.67 $11,770.74 $-385.44
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,770.74
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,770.74
Total Return: +17.71%
Back to Marcus Reversal