Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.7/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 33.5/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 30.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-7.2%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,991
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,523.73
Current Value
$14,280.47
Period P&L
$756.74
Max Drawdown
-17.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+6.68%
Worst Trade
-3.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.88%
Avg Hold Time
8.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$246,297.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$756.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$756.74
Gross Return
+5.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,523.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $981.67 13 $12,761.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $950.99 13 $12,362.93 $12,959.40 $-398.77
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $959.80 13 $12,477.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,007.99 13 $13,103.93 $13,585.94 +$626.54
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $995.73 13 $12,944.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $1,046.78 13 $13,608.14 $14,249.53 +$663.59
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $1,027.99 13 $13,363.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,096.66 13 $14,256.58 $15,142.24 +$892.71
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 11:40am ET $1,095.48 13 $14,241.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $1,059.89 13 $13,778.57 $14,679.57 $-462.67
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 11:10am ET $1,055.27 13 $13,718.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET $1,110.09 13 $14,431.17 $15,392.23 +$712.66
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET $1,135.28 13 $14,758.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET $1,116.99 13 $14,520.87 $15,154.46 $-237.77
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,121.37 13 $14,577.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $1,086.12 13 $14,119.56 $14,696.21 $-458.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $1,064.91 13 $13,843.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,032.93 13 $13,428.09 $14,280.47 $-415.74
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,280.47
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,280.47
Total Return: +42.80%
Back to Marcus Reversal