Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:18

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

30
+9.3%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.0 Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,547
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$2,344.50
Current Value
$4,160.63
Period P&L
$942.86
Max Drawdown
-78.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
10 / 5
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-3.86%
Avg Trade Return
+2.39%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$103,109.71
Estimated Fees
$257.77
Gross P&L
$942.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$685.09
Gross Return
+40.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.22%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $2,344.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:40am ET $60,583.00 0 $2,953.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET $58,246.60 0 $2,839.97 $2,839.97 $-128.40
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 10:05am ET $58,842.90 0 $2,839.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:25am ET $61,820.20 0 $2,983.67 $2,983.67 +$129.14
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET $61,499.90 0 $2,983.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 11:35am ET $64,800.30 0 $3,143.79 $3,143.79 +$144.80
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $64,554.40 0 $3,143.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $62,520.30 0 $3,044.73 $3,044.73 $-114.53
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:45am ET $62,513.00 0 $3,044.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 2:15pm ET $65,691.50 0 $3,199.54 $3,199.54 +$139.20
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET $65,191.70 0 $3,199.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:10pm ET $63,155.10 0 $3,099.59 $3,099.59 $-115.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:15pm ET $63,145.50 0 $3,099.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:10am ET $66,475.30 0 $3,263.04 $3,263.04 +$147.54
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:20pm ET $68,001.00 0 $3,263.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 4:40am ET $71,410.20 0 $3,426.63 $3,426.63 +$146.87
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 7:25am ET $71,874.00 0 $3,426.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:50pm ET $75,530.50 0 $3,600.96 $3,600.96 +$156.76
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:55pm ET $74,375.40 0 $3,600.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 4:55am ET $78,634.10 0 $3,807.15 $3,807.15 +$187.67
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
6h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 6:05am ET $77,620.90 0 $3,807.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:25pm ET $81,538.10 0 $3,999.28 $3,999.28 +$172.61
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.4d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 6:35pm ET $81,045.40 0 $3,999.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 1:45am ET $78,602.60 0 $3,878.74 $3,878.74 $-140.24
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:25am ET $78,419.00 0 $3,878.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET $75,818.50 0 $3,750.11 $3,750.11 $-147.70
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $75,677.80 0 $3,750.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $79,921.50 0 $3,960.40 $3,960.40 +$191.01
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:40pm ET $80,654.70 0 $3,960.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 5:35am ET $84,732.40 0 $4,160.63 $4,160.63 +$179.93
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,160.63
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,839.37
Total Return: -58.39%
Back to Marcus Reversal