Compendium › Marcus Reversal › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 24 trades in period

-16.16%
Last 3 Months Return
$3,045.78
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$2,917.86
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-06-23 04:29:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 4.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

10
-16.4%
30d Return
23%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,598
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$2,917.86
Current Value
$3,045.78
Period P&L
$-471.46
Max Drawdown
-78.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
9 / 15
Best Trade
+5.35%
Worst Trade
-3.75%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$158,481.91
Estimated Fees
$396.20
Gross P&L
$-471.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$-867.66
Gross Return
-16.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-29.74%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $2,917.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 22, 2026 4:35am ET $68,617.20 0 $3,167.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 7:00am ET $66,494.30 0 $3,069.63 $3,069.63 $-113.59
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 7:05am ET $66,412.50 0 $3,069.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 5:20am ET $69,920.30 0 $3,231.76 $3,231.76 +$146.38
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 7:45am ET $69,652.70 0 $3,231.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 11:25am ET $73,286.20 0 $3,400.35 $3,400.35 +$152.01
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $72,772.80 0 $3,400.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 12, 2026 7:35pm ET $70,576.40 0 $3,297.72 $3,297.72 $-119.37
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 1:35am ET $70,799.80 0 $3,297.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:50pm ET $74,352.90 0 $3,463.22 $3,463.22 +$148.59
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 8:15pm ET $74,349.90 0 $3,463.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $78,210.90 0 $3,643.07 $3,643.07 +$162.08
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $77,217.40 0 $3,643.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 1:55pm ET $74,815.40 0 $3,529.74 $3,529.75 $-131.26
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2026 2:00pm ET $74,824.00 0 $3,529.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET $78,632.40 0 $3,709.41 $3,709.41 +$161.56
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:45pm ET $78,837.20 0 $3,709.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 7:15am ET $76,450.00 0 $3,597.09 $3,597.09 $-130.59
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 7:35am ET $76,284.50 0 $3,597.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 3, 2026 10:45pm ET $80,150.50 0 $3,779.39 $3,779.39 +$163.85
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.6d held
11 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 1:25am ET $80,037.00 0 $3,779.39 — — —
🔴 SELL May 17, 2026 7:45pm ET $77,187.30 0 $3,644.83 $3,644.83 $-153.12
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
12 🟢 BUY May 17, 2026 7:50pm ET $77,222.80 0 $3,644.83 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 3:55am ET $74,447.10 0 $3,513.82 $3,513.82 $-148.91
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held
13 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 4:00am ET $74,505.70 0 $3,513.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 8:05am ET $72,231.20 0 $3,406.55 $3,406.55 $-124.57
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 8:10am ET $72,035.00 0 $3,406.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:05am ET $69,740.00 0 $3,298.02 $3,298.02 $-125.29
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:10am ET $69,871.30 0 $3,298.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:30am ET $67,753.80 0 $3,198.07 $3,198.07 $-116.19
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:35am ET $67,937.70 0 $3,198.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:45pm ET $65,699.90 0 $3,092.73 $3,092.73 $-121.07
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.2h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:50pm ET $65,565.00 0 $3,092.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm ET $63,279.20 0 $2,984.91 $2,984.91 $-123.02
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 8:40pm ET $63,063.20 0 $2,984.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET $60,700.00 0 $2,873.05 $2,873.05 $-126.50
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 10:05am ET $60,575.20 0 $2,873.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 6:15pm ET $63,638.30 0 $3,018.33 $3,018.33 +$130.55
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 7:20pm ET $62,840.60 0 $3,018.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $60,955.10 0 $2,927.77 $2,927.77 $-105.43
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $60,824.20 0 $2,927.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET $63,883.90 0 $3,075.05 $3,075.05 +$132.27
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:10pm ET $63,737.70 0 $3,075.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 11:50am ET $67,144.90 0 $3,239.43 $3,239.43 +$148.60
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:30pm ET $66,780.00 0 $3,239.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 7:00am ET $64,736.70 0 $3,140.31 $3,140.31 $-115.07
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 7:05am ET $64,649.90 0 $3,140.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:45am ET $62,703.90 0 $3,045.78 $3,045.78 $-109.99
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,045.78
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,954.22
Total Return: -69.54%
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