Compendium › Marcus Reversal › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 22 trades in period

+26.26%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,090.84
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$5,616.07
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:34:00

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

36
+10.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.9 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,616.07
Current Value
$7,090.84
Period P&L
$1,474.82
Max Drawdown
-53.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
11 / 11
Best Trade
+8.42%
Worst Trade
-5.24%
Avg Trade Return
+1.18%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$272,625.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,474.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,474.82
Gross Return
+26.26%
Net Return (after fees)
+26.26%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,616.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 1:20pm ET $144.41 38 $5,487.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $139.18 38 $5,288.84 $5,417.28 $-198.74
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $145.59 37 $5,386.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:00am ET $153.97 37 $5,696.89 $5,727.34 +$310.06
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET $166.08 34 $5,646.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $159.23 34 $5,413.65 $5,494.27 $-233.07
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $156.70 35 $5,484.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $166.41 35 $5,824.52 $5,834.29 +$340.02
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $156.46 37 $5,789.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $165.86 37 $6,136.71 $6,181.98 +$347.69
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $161.90 38 $6,152.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $153.41 38 $5,829.77 $5,859.55 $-322.43
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET $160.40 36 $5,774.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $173.90 36 $6,260.40 $6,345.55 +$486.00
(+8.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $174.14 36 $6,269.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:50am ET $168.79 36 $6,076.44 $6,152.95 $-192.60
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:55am ET $160.54 38 $6,100.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET $155.31 38 $5,901.78 $5,954.21 $-198.74
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:45am ET $161.25 36 $5,805.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $153.28 36 $5,518.08 $5,667.29 $-286.92
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $144.02 39 $5,616.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 1:10pm ET $151.37 39 $5,903.43 $5,954.04 +$286.75
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $148.45 40 $5,937.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET $156.45 40 $6,258.00 $6,274.18 +$320.14
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
14d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 2:05pm ET $171.88 36 $6,187.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $182.00 36 $6,552.00 $6,638.50 +$364.32
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:45am ET $184.94 35 $6,472.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $179.31 35 $6,275.85 $6,441.45 $-197.05
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $182.01 35 $6,370.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET $191.20 35 $6,692.00 $6,763.10 +$321.65
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:45am ET $181.57 37 $6,718.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET $176.04 37 $6,513.66 $6,558.67 $-204.43
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 3:30pm ET $175.58 37 $6,496.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $184.94 37 $6,842.69 $6,904.90 +$346.23
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $184.38 37 $6,822.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 3:50pm ET $178.85 37 $6,617.27 $6,700.10 $-204.80
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $170.81 39 $6,661.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET $181.11 39 $7,063.29 $7,101.88 +$401.78
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:35pm ET $190.08 37 $7,032.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $183.85 37 $6,802.45 $6,871.37 $-230.51
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET $170.26 40 $6,810.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $164.70 40 $6,587.80 $6,648.84 $-222.53
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $192.73 34 $6,552.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.73 34 $6,994.82 $7,090.84 +$442.00
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,090.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,909.16
Total Return: -29.09%
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