Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:25:06

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
9.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 16.8/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 16.0

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.4%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,167.18
Current Value
$11,108.77
Period P&L
$-2,058.42
Max Drawdown
-20.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
5 / 10
Best Trade
+5.43%
Worst Trade
-5.42%
Avg Trade Return
-0.78%
Avg Hold Time
4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$364,141.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,058.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,058.42
Gross Return
-15.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.63%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,167.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $124.01 102 $12,649.02
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET $130.57 102 $13,317.63 $13,327.84 +$668.61
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 3:50pm ET $133.93 99 $13,259.07
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET $129.72 99 $12,842.28 $12,911.05 $-416.79
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:20pm ET $126.79 101 $12,805.79
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $133.68 101 $13,501.18 $13,606.44 +$695.39
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:40am ET $129.80 104 $13,499.32
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $122.76 104 $12,767.04 $12,874.16 $-732.28
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET $126.85 101 $12,811.85
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET $122.68 101 $12,390.18 $12,452.49 $-421.67
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET $123.29 101 $12,452.29
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:25am ET $119.59 101 $12,078.59 $12,078.79 $-373.70
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:10pm ET $119.00 101 $12,019.00
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $113.93 101 $11,507.43 $11,567.22 $-511.57
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $117.17 98 $11,482.66
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 3:05pm ET $123.06 98 $12,059.39 $12,143.95 +$576.73
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $123.64 98 $12,116.72
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $117.45 98 $11,510.10 $11,537.33 $-606.62
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
10 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $116.02 99 $11,485.98
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 10:00am ET $121.85 99 $12,063.15 $12,114.50 +$577.17
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
11 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $124.19 97 $12,046.43
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:50pm ET $120.39 97 $11,678.31 $11,746.38 $-368.12
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
12 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $119.07 98 $11,669.35
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $114.95 98 $11,265.10 $11,342.13 $-404.25
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
13 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:50am ET $115.13 98 $11,282.74
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:50am ET $121.01 98 $11,859.22 $11,918.61 +$576.48
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 12:35pm ET $118.94 100 $11,894.00
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $114.33 100 $11,433.00 $11,457.61 $-461.00
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $111.49 102 $11,371.98
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:10am ET $108.07 102 $11,023.14 $11,108.77 $-348.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,108.77
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,108.77
Total Return: +11.09%
Back to Marcus Reversal