Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:30:26

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.8 oversold
20d Trend
-22.1%
5d Trend
-11.2%
EMA20 Dist
-13.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

3
-4.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,740.02
Current Value
$7,795.45
Period P&L
$1,055.42
Max Drawdown
-48.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+6.37%
Worst Trade
-4.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.98%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$244,497.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,055.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,055.42
Gross Return
+15.66%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,740.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET $150.93 44 $6,640.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $159.49 44 $7,017.34 $7,151.21 +$376.64
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
11d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $157.30 45 $7,078.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:55am ET $165.48 45 $7,446.38 $7,519.09 +$367.88
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $163.93 45 $7,376.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $157.91 45 $7,105.95 $7,248.42 $-270.67
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:45am ET $163.66 44 $7,201.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET $172.03 44 $7,569.32 $7,616.70 +$368.28
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 1:40pm ET $170.26 44 $7,491.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET $165.00 44 $7,260.00 $7,385.26 $-231.44
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:30am ET $158.59 46 $7,295.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $168.69 46 $7,759.74 $7,849.86 +$464.60
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 2:10pm ET $182.84 42 $7,679.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:20am ET $177.24 42 $7,444.29 $7,614.87 $-234.99
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:50am ET $188.11 40 $7,524.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $197.91 40 $7,916.40 $8,006.87 +$392.00
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 2:20pm ET $196.40 40 $7,855.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:00am ET $190.34 40 $7,613.60 $7,764.67 $-242.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 3:30pm ET $198.16 39 $7,728.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET $208.50 39 $8,131.50 $8,167.93 +$403.26
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $205.91 39 $8,030.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $199.45 39 $7,778.55 $7,915.80 $-252.13
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:50am ET $244.69 32 $7,830.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $257.47 32 $8,239.04 $8,324.76 +$408.96
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:25pm ET $260.67 31 $8,080.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $248.48 31 $7,702.90 $7,946.89 $-377.87
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET $248.68 31 $7,709.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $261.29 31 $8,099.84 $8,337.64 +$390.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $250.79 33 $8,276.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $242.69 33 $8,008.77 $8,070.34 $-267.30
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $240.62 33 $7,940.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET $232.29 33 $7,665.57 $7,795.45 $-274.89
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,795.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,204.55
Total Return: -22.05%
Back to Marcus Reversal