Compendium › Marcus Reversal › CRWD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
CRWD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 23 trades in period

-74.82%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,323.94
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$29,089.80
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:58:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 8.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 8.1

30-Day Momentum

39
+12.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 47.9 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$29,089.80
Current Value
$7,323.94
Period P&L
$-21,765.86
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
8 / 15
Best Trade
+10.20%
Worst Trade
-74.79%
Avg Trade Return
-3.25%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$393,149.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-21,765.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-21,765.86
Gross Return
-74.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-74.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $29,089.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET $681.75 43 $29,315.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET $721.99 43 $31,045.57 $31,204.54 +$1,730.32
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $758.54 41 $31,100.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $191.26 41 $7,841.46 $7,945.65 $-23,258.89
(-74.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $189.38 41 $7,764.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $199.41 41 $8,176.01 $8,357.00 +$411.35
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 1:40pm ET $198.38 42 $8,332.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET $190.22 42 $7,989.24 $8,014.07 $-342.93
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 1:40pm ET $196.55 40 $7,862.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET $189.52 40 $7,580.80 $7,732.87 $-281.20
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET $208.01 37 $7,696.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $201.26 37 $7,446.80 $7,483.31 $-249.56
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $205.05 36 $7,381.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $198.29 36 $7,138.44 $7,239.95 $-243.36
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET $188.00 38 $7,144.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET $182.08 38 $6,919.04 $7,014.99 $-224.96
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:50am ET $183.12 38 $6,958.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $177.47 38 $6,743.86 $6,800.29 $-214.70
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:40am ET $180.35 37 $6,673.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $189.72 37 $7,019.64 $7,146.80 +$346.51
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET $213.10 33 $7,032.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $203.00 33 $6,699.00 $6,813.50 $-333.30
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:55am ET $210.32 32 $6,730.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:45am ET $221.99 32 $7,103.68 $7,186.94 +$373.44
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:45am ET $220.99 32 $7,071.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $213.73 32 $6,839.36 $6,954.46 $-232.48
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET $211.26 32 $6,760.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET $204.67 32 $6,549.44 $6,743.58 $-210.88
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:55am ET $195.61 34 $6,650.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET $189.42 34 $6,440.28 $6,533.12 $-210.46
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:50pm ET $189.34 34 $6,437.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:40pm ET $183.64 34 $6,243.88 $6,339.44 $-193.68
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $188.75 33 $6,228.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $208.00 33 $6,864.00 $6,974.69 +$635.25
(+10.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $218.86 31 $6,784.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $210.85 31 $6,536.35 $6,726.26 $-248.43
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET $225.48 29 $6,538.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:15am ET $218.58 29 $6,338.76 $6,526.10 $-200.16
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $205.16 31 $6,359.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:40am ET $216.57 31 $6,713.74 $6,879.88 +$353.78
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:40am ET $209.61 32 $6,707.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $221.13 32 $7,076.16 $7,248.52 +$368.64
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:00pm ET $240.18 30 $7,205.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $230.85 30 $6,925.50 $6,968.62 $-279.90
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $246.90 28 $6,913.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET $259.58 28 $7,268.38 $7,323.94 +$355.32
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,323.94
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,676.06
Total Return: -26.76%
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