Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:26:48

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

56
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
27.5/35
Total Return
19.0/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 58.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 56.3

30-Day Momentum

3
-10.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-53 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$21,869.33
Current Value
$29,474.22
Period P&L
$7,604.89
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
19
Winners / Losers
12 / 7
Best Trade
+7.72%
Worst Trade
-11.36%
Avg Trade Return
+1.68%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,001,017.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,604.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,604.89
Gross Return
+34.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+34.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 19 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $21,869.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:25pm ET $411.16 53 $21,791.48
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $394.80 53 $20,924.40 $21,244.99 $-867.08
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $389.14 54 $21,013.29
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $370.43 54 $20,003.22 $20,234.92 $-1,010.07
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET $385.16 52 $20,028.32
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET $405.98 52 $21,110.96 $21,317.56 +$1,082.64
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $415.58 51 $21,194.83
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET $403.01 51 $20,553.52 $20,676.24 $-641.32
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET $365.91 56 $20,490.96
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $387.05 56 $21,675.08 $21,860.36 +$1,184.12
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:45am ET $400.92 54 $21,649.95
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $422.51 54 $22,815.32 $23,025.74 +$1,165.38
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 11:40am ET $423.57 54 $22,872.78
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $446.24 54 $24,096.96 $24,249.92 +$1,224.18
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $448.74 54 $24,231.97
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:50am ET $471.34 54 $25,452.36 $25,470.31 +$1,220.39
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held
9 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $465.85 54 $25,155.90
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $491.83 54 $26,558.82 $26,873.23 +$1,402.92
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:40am ET $495.69 54 $26,767.26
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $522.13 54 $28,195.02 $28,300.99 +$1,427.76
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
11 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 3:40pm ET $546.79 51 $27,886.19
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 11:05am ET $575.12 51 $29,331.35 $29,746.15 +$1,445.16
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
12 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $589.34 50 $29,466.75
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $619.07 50 $30,953.50 $31,232.90 +$1,486.75
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held
13 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 3:50pm ET $617.48 50 $30,874.25
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $648.76 50 $32,438.00 $32,796.65 +$1,563.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
14 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 1:10pm ET $667.43 49 $32,704.07
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $638.00 49 $31,262.00 $31,354.58 $-1,442.07
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
15 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $645.08 48 $30,963.84
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $694.87 48 $33,353.76 $33,744.50 +$2,389.92
(+7.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $764.85 44 $33,653.40
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $678.00 44 $29,832.00 $29,923.10 $-3,821.40
(-11.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $696.59 42 $29,256.78
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:45pm ET $675.41 42 $28,367.22 $29,033.54 $-889.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $655.01 44 $28,820.44
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $632.79 44 $27,842.76 $28,055.86 $-977.68
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET $651.28 43 $28,005.25
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 12:00pm ET $684.27 43 $29,423.61 $29,474.22 +$1,418.36
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $29,474.22
Net Profit/Loss: +$19,474.22
Total Return: +194.74%
Back to Marcus Reversal