Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:23

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.8/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 46.3/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 43.4

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-43 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,398.23
Current Value
$16,887.15
Period P&L
$2,488.93
Max Drawdown
-13.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.37

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+6.06%
Worst Trade
-3.33%
Avg Trade Return
+1.55%
Avg Hold Time
8.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$289,174.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,488.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,488.93
Gross Return
+17.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,398.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 1:45pm ET $174.52 84 $14,659.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:30am ET $169.20 84 $14,212.80 $14,379.73 $-446.88
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:40am ET $167.84 85 $14,265.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $178.00 85 $15,130.00 $15,243.75 +$864.02
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:10am ET $174.55 87 $15,185.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $183.40 87 $15,956.23 $16,014.13 +$770.38
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:50am ET $186.49 85 $15,851.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $196.09 85 $16,667.81 $16,830.29 +$816.16
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $194.21 86 $16,701.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:40am ET $187.73 86 $16,144.78 $16,273.44 $-556.85
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 1:45pm ET $191.64 84 $16,097.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 12:50pm ET $201.23 84 $16,903.32 $17,079.00 +$805.56
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
16d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:00am ET $203.95 83 $16,927.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:55am ET $197.82 83 $16,419.47 $16,570.63 $-508.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $201.32 82 $16,507.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET $211.74 82 $17,362.68 $17,425.48 +$854.85
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $211.69 82 $17,358.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $205.13 82 $16,820.25 $16,887.15 $-538.33
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,887.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,887.15
Total Return: +68.87%
Back to Marcus Reversal