Compendium › Marcus Reversal › DIA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 3 trades in period

+0.76%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,155.71
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$12,063.72
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:12

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.5%
ATR%
1.0%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 31.1/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 25.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,063.72
Current Value
$12,155.71
Period P&L
$92.00
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.33

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+3.06%
Worst Trade
-3.02%
Avg Trade Return
+0.93%
Avg Hold Time
29.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$72,610.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$92.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$92.00
Gross Return
+0.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,063.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 12:05pm ET $511.82 23 $11,771.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $525.88 23 $12,095.13 $12,160.77 +$323.38
(+2.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $522.84 23 $12,025.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $538.84 23 $12,393.32 $12,528.77 +$368.00
(+3.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 11:00am ET $536.92 23 $12,349.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:05am ET $520.70 23 $11,976.10 $12,155.71 $-373.06
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
27d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,155.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,155.71
Total Return: +21.56%
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