Compendium › Marcus Reversal › DKNG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DKNG
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 23 trades in period

-2.02%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,637.94
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$6,774.69
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

21
+3.3%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.6 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,774.69
Current Value
$6,637.94
Period P&L
$-136.73
Max Drawdown
-50.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
9 / 14
Best Trade
+6.29%
Worst Trade
-5.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.03%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$308,297.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-136.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-136.73
Gross Return
-2.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,774.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $25.55 267 $6,821.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 2:50pm ET $24.77 267 $6,613.59 $6,635.83 $-208.26
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:55pm ET $23.23 285 $6,620.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET $24.42 285 $6,961.12 $6,976.40 +$340.57
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:55am ET $25.42 274 $6,965.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $26.96 274 $7,387.04 $7,398.36 +$421.96
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET $26.59 278 $7,392.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:55am ET $25.74 278 $7,155.72 $7,162.06 $-236.30
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:25pm ET $25.94 276 $7,160.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 2:20pm ET $25.15 276 $6,941.40 $6,942.64 $-219.42
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $25.07 276 $6,919.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $24.20 276 $6,679.20 $6,702.52 $-240.12
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $24.43 274 $6,693.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $23.11 274 $6,332.14 $6,340.84 $-361.68
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:50am ET $22.64 280 $6,340.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET $23.78 280 $6,658.40 $6,658.98 +$318.14
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 11:55am ET $24.34 273 $6,644.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET $23.54 273 $6,426.42 $6,441.26 $-217.72
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:35am ET $23.35 275 $6,421.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET $22.36 275 $6,149.00 $6,169.01 $-272.25
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 12:40pm ET $23.35 264 $6,164.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:50am ET $24.65 264 $6,507.60 $6,512.21 +$343.20
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:45am ET $25.13 259 $6,508.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $26.40 259 $6,837.60 $6,841.14 +$328.93
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $25.10 272 $6,828.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $24.32 272 $6,613.68 $6,626.26 $-214.88
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:55am ET $25.02 264 $6,606.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:15am ET $26.36 264 $6,959.04 $6,978.70 +$352.44
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET $25.18 277 $6,974.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $24.38 277 $6,751.88 $6,755.71 $-222.99
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:20pm ET $25.62 263 $6,738.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $24.26 263 $6,380.38 $6,397.58 $-358.13
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:45pm ET $23.61 270 $6,374.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:05am ET $24.83 270 $6,704.10 $6,726.98 +$329.40
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 11:20am ET $24.43 275 $6,719.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET $23.63 275 $6,498.25 $6,505.60 $-221.38
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET $23.57 276 $6,503.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $25.05 276 $6,913.25 $6,914.91 +$409.31
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:10pm ET $24.78 278 $6,890.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET $23.98 278 $6,666.44 $6,691.12 $-223.79
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $23.55 284 $6,686.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $22.74 284 $6,458.16 $6,462.50 $-228.62
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $21.78 296 $6,446.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET $23.07 296 $6,828.72 $6,844.34 +$381.84
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:05am ET $21.34 320 $6,828.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:30am ET $20.69 320 $6,622.40 $6,637.94 $-206.40
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,637.94
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,362.06
Total Return: -33.62%
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