Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:51:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 29%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.9/35
Total Return
0.5/25
Win Rate
24.3/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 60.9/100
× Confidence 0.29 = 17.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (29%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,802
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,596.74
Current Value
$6,227.88
Period P&L
$-1,912.32
Max Drawdown
-99.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
8 / 16
Best Trade
+6.76%
Worst Trade
-7.44%
Avg Trade Return
-0.68%
Avg Hold Time
19.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$322,658.68
Estimated Fees
$806.65
Gross P&L
$-1,912.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,718.97
Gross Return
-25.17%
Net Return (after fees)
-35.79%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

💸 Capital Refund History

When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.

# Date Capital Before Trades Before Era Fees Paid Reason
1 Jan 31, 2026 $99.76 908 $14,757.32 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.

📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures

Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.

💀 Era 1 — CRASHED
Jan 3, 2024 → Jan 31, 2026
Trades
908
Win Rate
40.4%
P&L
$-9,900.00
Fees Paid
$14,757.32
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,000
Crashed At
$99.76
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,596.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $0.0890 86,751 $7,719.06
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.0824 86,751 $7,144.77 $7,107.61 $-611.45
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $0.0816 87,071 $7,107.61
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $0.0872 87,071 $7,588.24 $7,551.50 +$443.89
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
18m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET $0.0910 82,984 $7,551.50
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET $0.0957 82,984 $7,938.21 $7,899.48 +$347.98
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 7:00pm ET $0.0978 80,755 $7,899.48
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET $0.0948 80,755 $7,655.60 $7,616.71 $-282.77
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 8:25am ET $0.0963 79,077 $7,616.71
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 5:25am ET $0.0933 79,077 $7,376.74 $7,339.26 $-277.46
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 5:30am ET $0.0930 78,924 $7,339.26
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET $0.0948 78,924 $7,485.85 $7,448.79 +$109.53
(+2.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
19.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:00am ET $0.0948 78,584 $7,448.79
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:35pm ET $0.0919 78,584 $7,220.94 $7,220.94 $-264.53
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:50pm ET $0.0916 78,801 $7,220.94
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET $0.0882 78,801 $6,954.14 $6,954.14 $-302.24
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 1:45pm ET $0.1004 69,299 $6,954.14
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 12:25am ET $0.0971 69,299 $6,726.38 $6,726.38 $-261.97
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 12:30am ET $0.0972 69,204 $6,726.38
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET $0.0938 69,204 $6,488.08 $6,488.08 $-271.33
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET $0.0921 70,451 $6,488.08
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 6:20am ET $0.0971 70,451 $6,839.98 $6,839.98 +$318.58
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
10.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 7:25am ET $0.0967 70,740 $6,839.98
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 12:35pm ET $0.0936 70,740 $6,624.49 $6,624.49 $-249.15
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $0.0933 70,999 $6,624.49
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET $0.0902 70,999 $6,406.51 $6,406.51 $-250.56
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 6:10pm ET $0.0913 70,155 $6,406.51
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 8:15am ET $0.0960 70,155 $6,732.95 $6,732.95 +$293.59
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.1h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 5:45pm ET $0.1027 65,542 $6,732.95
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 6:45pm ET $0.0996 65,542 $6,530.64 $6,530.64 $-235.47
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:50pm ET $0.0999 65,365 $6,530.64
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET $0.0957 65,365 $6,257.82 $6,257.82 $-304.79
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.1h held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $0.0958 65,328 $6,257.82
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 2:45pm ET $0.0928 65,328 $6,062.41 $6,062.41 $-226.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $0.0928 65,350 $6,062.41
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET $0.0899 65,350 $5,876.77 $5,876.77 $-215.49
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET $0.0893 65,779 $5,876.77
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $0.0941 65,779 $6,192.94 $6,192.94 +$286.00
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 6:45pm ET $0.0940 65,908 $6,192.94
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.0911 65,908 $6,006.30 $6,006.30 $-217.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 3:20pm ET $0.0911 65,915 $6,006.30
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET $0.0958 65,915 $6,311.38 $6,311.38 +$274.29
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 12:50pm ET $0.0948 66,551 $6,311.38
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 11:45pm ET $0.0920 66,551 $6,119.35 $6,119.35 $-223.11
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9h held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 11:50pm ET $0.0917 66,723 $6,119.35
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:20am ET $0.0889 66,723 $5,928.41 $5,928.41 $-221.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.5h held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $0.0902 65,760 $5,928.41
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET $0.0947 65,760 $6,227.88 $6,227.88 +$269.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21h held
Started with: $10,000.00
+ 1 refund ($10,000)
Total Invested: $20,000.00
Ended with: $6,227.88
Net Profit/Loss: $-13,772.12
Total Return: -68.86%
Back to Marcus Reversal