Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:52:39

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 43%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
0.9/25
Win Rate
18.2/15
Profit Factor
14.6/15
Consistency
2.1/10
Raw Quality 37.8/100
× Confidence 0.43 = 16.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (43%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,799
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$2,041.78
Current Value
$1,767.45
Period P&L
$-446.64
Max Drawdown
-99.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
9 / 18
Best Trade
+6.94%
Worst Trade
-7.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.33%
Avg Hold Time
17.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$101,528.56
Estimated Fees
$253.82
Gross P&L
$-446.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-700.47
Gross Return
-21.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-34.31%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

💸 Capital Refund History

When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.

# Date Capital Before Trades Before Era Fees Paid Reason
1 Jun 21, 2025 $99.18 568 $6,916.81 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.

📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures

Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.

💀 Era 1 — CRASHED
Jan 1, 2024 → Jun 21, 2025
Trades
568
Win Rate
37.1%
P&L
$-9,900.67
Fees Paid
$6,916.81
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,000
Crashed At
$99.18
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $2,041.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $1.24 1,649 $2,051.67
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $1.15 1,649 $1,896.64 $1,886.77 $-164.90
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $1.13 1,667 $1,886.77
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET $1.20 1,667 $1,998.44 $1,988.72 +$101.96
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
18m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10pm ET $1.23 1,616 $1,988.72
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET $1.30 1,616 $2,092.12 $2,081.92 +$93.19
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET $1.27 1,643 $2,081.92
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 8:20am ET $1.33 1,643 $2,187.08 $2,176.41 +$94.49
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:40pm ET $1.36 1,596 $2,176.41
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET $1.32 1,596 $2,110.99 $2,100.27 $-76.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 8:40am ET $1.34 1,567 $2,100.27
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 4:35am ET $1.30 1,567 $2,032.67 $2,022.34 $-77.93
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 4:45am ET $1.30 1,558 $2,022.34
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET $1.30 1,558 $2,023.02 $2,012.91 $-9.43
(+0.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
19.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:55am ET $1.30 1,554 $2,012.91
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:50pm ET $1.25 1,554 $1,949.96 $1,949.96 $-72.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:30am ET $1.36 1,429 $1,949.96
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 1:45pm ET $1.32 1,429 $1,884.16 $1,884.16 $-75.39
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.32 1,426 $1,884.16
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 8:05am ET $1.28 1,426 $1,825.56 $1,825.56 $-67.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.32 1,426 $1,884.16
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 8:45am ET $1.27 1,426 $1,816.00 $1,757.40 $-77.41
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET $1.27 1,384 $1,757.40
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 10:20am ET $1.34 1,384 $1,848.90 $1,848.90 +$82.49
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET $1.32 1,397 $1,848.90
🔴 SELL Feb 21, 2026 4:30am ET $1.39 1,397 $1,942.92 $1,942.92 +$84.54
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 21, 2026 7:45am ET $1.38 1,413 $1,942.92
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 3:30am ET $1.33 1,413 $1,884.01 $1,884.01 $-68.48
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 3:35am ET $1.33 1,416 $1,884.01
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET $1.29 1,416 $1,826.53 $1,826.53 $-66.75
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET $1.27 1,437 $1,826.53
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:05am ET $1.23 1,437 $1,768.75 $1,768.75 $-66.77
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $1.25 1,412 $1,768.75
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 5:15am ET $1.33 1,412 $1,876.94 $1,876.94 +$99.08
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 5:55pm ET $1.65 1,136 $1,876.94
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 12:10am ET $1.59 1,136 $1,811.38 $1,811.38 $-74.78
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:15am ET $1.60 1,135 $1,811.38
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET $1.54 1,135 $1,745.11 $1,745.11 $-75.16
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.7h held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $1.54 1,134 $1,745.11
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 6:30pm ET $1.62 1,134 $1,833.60 $1,833.60 +$79.54
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.5h held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 12:00am ET $1.62 1,129 $1,833.60
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 6:20am ET $1.57 1,129 $1,777.61 $1,777.61 $-65.02
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 6:40am ET $1.57 1,129 $1,777.61
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET $1.53 1,129 $1,722.27 $1,722.27 $-64.08
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET $1.49 1,154 $1,722.27
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $1.60 1,154 $1,841.78 $1,841.78 +$110.60
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
12h held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 8:10pm ET $1.63 1,132 $1,841.78
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 4:00am ET $1.58 1,132 $1,785.75 $1,785.75 $-65.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8h held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 4:50am ET $1.58 1,134 $1,785.75
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $1.53 1,134 $1,730.42 $1,730.42 $-64.12
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $1.53 1,134 $1,730.42
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 5:10am ET $1.48 1,134 $1,677.93 $1,677.93 $-61.01
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 5:15am ET $1.48 1,132 $1,677.93
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 4:00am ET $1.56 1,132 $1,767.45 $1,767.45 +$80.91
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
+ 1 refund ($10,000)
Total Invested: $20,000.00
Ended with: $1,767.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-18,232.55
Total Return: -91.16%
Back to Marcus Reversal