ETHUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 41 trades in period
-41.10%
Last 3 Months Return
$254.41
Current Value
34%
Win Rate
$265.21
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.0/10
Raw Quality
2.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 2.0
30-Day Momentum
10
-16.3%
30d Return
28%
Win Rate
18
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,581
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$265.21
Current Value
$254.41
Period P&L
$-109.00
Max Drawdown
-98.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
14 /
27
Best Trade
+5.68%
Worst Trade
-4.51%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$24,333.80
Estimated Fees
$60.83
Gross P&L
$-109.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$-169.84
Gross Return
-41.10%
Net Return (after fees)
-64.04%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $265.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 4:25am ET | $2,086.41 | 0 | $308.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 7:30am ET | $2,192.68 | 0 | $324.71 | $324.71 |
+$14.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 8:35am ET | $2,173.27 | 0 | $324.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 5:35am ET | $2,077.86 | 0 | $310.45 | $310.45 |
$-15.84 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 5:40am ET | $2,079.99 | 0 | $310.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET | $2,009.22 | 0 | $299.89 | $299.89 |
$-12.09 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $2,009.63 | 0 | $299.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET | $1,938.90 | 0 | $289.34 | $289.34 |
$-12.03 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 29, 2026 6:55pm ET | $1,958.08 | 0 | $289.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55am ET | $2,057.91 | 0 | $304.09 | $304.09 |
+$13.27 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 5:45am ET | $2,054.12 | 0 | $304.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:05pm ET | $2,164.55 | 0 | $320.44 | $320.44 |
+$14.79 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $2,129.61 | 0 | $320.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45pm ET | $2,065.65 | 0 | $310.82 | $310.82 |
$-11.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:05pm ET | $2,072.67 | 0 | $310.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 6:35pm ET | $2,177.48 | 0 | $326.54 | $326.54 |
+$14.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 8:35pm ET | $2,233.81 | 0 | $326.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $2,162.44 | 0 | $316.11 | $316.11 |
$-12.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $2,165.17 | 0 | $316.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 11, 2026 2:35pm ET | $2,276.04 | 0 | $332.30 | $332.30 |
+$14.57 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 4:35pm ET | $2,291.25 | 0 | $332.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET | $2,211.84 | 0 | $320.78 | $320.78 |
$-13.15 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 9:55pm ET | $2,224.02 | 0 | $320.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:35pm ET | $2,341.86 | 0 | $337.78 | $337.78 |
+$15.35 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 8:35pm ET | $2,365.11 | 0 | $337.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $2,293.74 | 0 | $327.59 | $327.59 |
$-11.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $2,290.37 | 0 | $327.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:15am ET | $2,408.24 | 0 | $344.45 | $344.45 |
+$15.18 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $2,430.10 | 0 | $344.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 18, 2026 7:10am ET | $2,357.14 | 0 | $334.11 | $334.11 |
$-12.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 18, 2026 7:40am ET | $2,345.54 | 0 | $334.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 6:00pm ET | $2,275.07 | 0 | $324.07 | $324.07 |
$-11.68 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET | $2,258.87 | 0 | $324.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:05pm ET | $2,374.48 | 0 | $340.66 | $340.66 |
+$14.92 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 2:55am ET | $2,392.75 | 0 | $340.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 5:50am ET | $2,317.00 | 0 | $329.88 | $329.88 |
$-12.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 5:55am ET | $2,317.05 | 0 | $329.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $2,232.05 | 0 | $317.78 | $317.78 |
$-13.72 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $2,230.30 | 0 | $317.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 3, 2026 6:15pm ET | $2,347.37 | 0 | $334.46 | $334.46 |
+$15.05 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 3, 2026 7:50pm ET | $2,323.65 | 0 | $334.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $2,251.52 | 0 | $324.08 | $324.08 |
$-12.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $2,254.23 | 0 | $324.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2026 5:15am ET | $2,184.40 | 0 | $314.04 | $314.04 |
$-11.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2026 5:20am ET | $2,168.67 | 0 | $314.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:05am ET | $2,098.74 | 0 | $303.91 | $303.91 |
$-11.67 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 11:10am ET | $2,099.19 | 0 | $303.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2026 3:50am ET | $2,032.73 | 0 | $294.29 | $294.29 |
$-11.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2026 3:55am ET | $2,019.54 | 0 | $294.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2026 4:45pm ET | $2,127.78 | 0 | $310.06 | $310.06 |
+$14.26 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2026 6:05pm ET | $2,116.77 | 0 | $310.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $2,050.12 | 0 | $300.30 | $300.30 |
$-11.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $2,053.36 | 0 | $300.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 11:20pm ET | $1,984.25 | 0 | $290.19 | $290.19 |
$-11.58 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:25pm ET | $1,992.94 | 0 | $290.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,932.07 | 0 | $281.33 | $281.33 |
$-10.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,941.46 | 0 | $281.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 6:20pm ET | $1,882.47 | 0 | $272.78 | $272.78 |
$-9.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 7:05pm ET | $1,860.65 | 0 | $272.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,801.11 | 0 | $264.05 | $264.05 |
$-10.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 4:00pm ET | $1,800.35 | 0 | $264.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET | $1,719.08 | 0 | $252.13 | $252.13 |
$-13.21 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET | $1,736.07 | 0 | $252.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:00am ET | $1,682.90 | 0 | $244.41 | $244.41 |
$-8.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:05am ET | $1,674.48 | 0 | $244.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,613.92 | 0 | $235.57 | $235.57 |
$-10.04 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,606.18 | 0 | $235.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,550.71 | 0 | $227.43 | $227.43 |
$-9.29 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $1,553.00 | 0 | $227.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2026 4:55am ET | $1,633.94 | 0 | $239.28 | $239.28 |
+$10.69 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 7, 2026 6:20am ET | $1,629.82 | 0 | $239.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 5:10pm ET | $1,713.29 | 0 | $251.53 | $251.53 |
+$11.03 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 6:15pm ET | $1,690.70 | 0 | $251.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,638.20 | 0 | $243.72 | $243.72 |
$-9.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,642.42 | 0 | $243.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 14, 2026 5:50pm ET | $1,727.32 | 0 | $256.32 | $256.32 |
+$11.35 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 14, 2026 9:05pm ET | $1,711.92 | 0 | $256.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:20am ET | $1,809.11 | 0 | $270.87 | $270.87 |
+$13.23 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $1,825.24 | 0 | $270.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:35pm ET | $1,770.02 | 0 | $262.68 | $262.68 |
$-9.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:40pm ET | $1,773.77 | 0 | $262.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,717.94 | 0 | $254.41 | $254.41 |
$-9.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$254.41
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,745.59
Total Return:
-97.46%