Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
43.2 neutral
20d Trend
-4.5%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-2.7%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
74%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

59
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
24.8/35
Total Return
18.7/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 59.0/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 58.7

30-Day Momentum

29
+6.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 46.9 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$24,970.78
Current Value
$27,023.96
Period P&L
$2,053.23
Max Drawdown
-25.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+5.40%
Worst Trade
-4.24%
Avg Trade Return
+0.50%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$687,357.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,053.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,053.23
Gross Return
+8.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GOOGL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $24,970.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:35am ET $345.50 74 $25,567.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET $364.14 74 $26,946.36 $27,025.34 +$1,379.36
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:50am ET $368.52 73 $26,901.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $355.51 73 $25,952.23 $26,075.61 $-949.73
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:10am ET $355.24 73 $25,932.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:25pm ET $373.04 73 $27,231.92 $27,374.65 +$1,299.04
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:10pm ET $361.57 75 $27,117.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $346.22 75 $25,966.65 $26,223.55 $-1,151.10
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:05am ET $356.61 73 $26,032.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:05pm ET $345.88 73 $25,249.24 $25,440.44 $-783.11
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 3:10pm ET $318.27 79 $25,143.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 1:00pm ET $334.32 79 $26,411.29 $26,708.40 +$1,267.96
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $336.27 79 $26,565.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 12:20pm ET $353.16 79 $27,899.64 $28,042.71 +$1,334.31
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $374.61 74 $27,720.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 12:10pm ET $359.70 74 $26,617.81 $26,939.75 $-1,102.96
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 12:45pm ET $358.50 75 $26,887.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 1:05pm ET $347.20 75 $26,040.00 $26,092.25 $-847.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 1:55pm ET $341.26 76 $25,935.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $329.72 76 $25,058.72 $25,215.22 $-877.03
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
27.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:00am ET $328.11 76 $24,936.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $345.36 76 $26,247.36 $26,526.22 +$1,311.00
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:20am ET $344.11 77 $26,496.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $361.77 77 $27,856.29 $27,885.96 +$1,359.74
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $346.90 80 $27,752.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $336.13 80 $26,890.00 $27,023.96 $-862.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $27,023.96
Net Profit/Loss: +$17,023.96
Total Return: +170.24%
Back to Marcus Reversal