Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:31:17

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 4.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.8%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,846.20
Current Value
$7,983.47
Period P&L
$-862.74
Max Drawdown
-19.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+5.47%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.49%
Avg Hold Time
9.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$151,248.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-862.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$-862.74
Gross Return
-9.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,846.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 10:40am ET $326.61 25 $8,165.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $344.48 25 $8,612.00 $8,859.71 +$446.88
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:25pm ET $348.77 25 $8,719.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $337.23 25 $8,430.63 $8,571.08 $-288.63
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $338.27 25 $8,456.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:45am ET $327.22 25 $8,180.50 $8,294.95 $-276.13
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 10:40am ET $331.89 24 $7,965.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:55am ET $348.61 24 $8,366.52 $8,695.99 +$401.04
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $338.92 25 $8,473.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:15am ET $356.48 25 $8,911.88 $9,134.86 +$438.87
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:15am ET $347.69 26 $9,039.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:40am ET $336.60 26 $8,751.60 $8,846.52 $-288.34
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET $333.88 26 $8,680.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:45am ET $322.82 26 $8,393.21 $8,558.98 $-287.54
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET $319.32 26 $8,302.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $307.93 26 $8,006.31 $8,262.97 $-296.01
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:20pm ET $309.09 26 $8,036.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $298.34 26 $7,756.84 $7,983.47 $-279.50
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,983.47
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,016.53
Total Return: -20.17%
Back to Marcus Reversal