Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

16
+3.1%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.3 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,376.11
Current Value
$8,197.14
Period P&L
$821.02
Max Drawdown
-45.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
11 / 15
Best Trade
+8.12%
Worst Trade
-6.14%
Avg Trade Return
+0.52%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$411,060.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$821.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$821.02
Gross Return
+11.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,376.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET $94.08 78 $7,338.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $99.22 78 $7,739.16 $7,777.04 +$400.93
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 12:30pm ET $100.82 77 $7,763.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:05am ET $107.29 77 $8,261.33 $8,275.06 +$498.02
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET $113.98 72 $8,206.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $109.75 72 $7,902.00 $7,970.50 $-304.56
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 1:10pm ET $116.49 68 $7,921.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $111.60 68 $7,588.80 $7,637.98 $-332.52
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $110.17 69 $7,601.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET $115.89 69 $7,996.41 $8,033.00 +$395.02
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.39 74 $7,946.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $100.80 74 $7,459.20 $7,545.34 $-487.66
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $100.29 75 $7,521.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET $105.68 75 $7,926.37 $7,949.96 +$404.62
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 2:25pm ET $105.04 75 $7,878.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $101.77 75 $7,632.75 $7,704.71 $-245.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $97.53 78 $7,607.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:30am ET $94.23 78 $7,349.94 $7,447.31 $-257.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $93.82 79 $7,411.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $89.94 79 $7,105.65 $7,141.19 $-306.13
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $90.06 79 $7,114.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $87.31 79 $6,897.49 $6,923.94 $-217.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $84.67 81 $6,858.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET $89.71 81 $7,266.51 $7,332.18 +$408.24
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:40am ET $91.22 80 $7,298.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $96.98 80 $7,758.68 $7,792.86 +$460.68
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:00am ET $98.32 79 $7,767.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $94.96 79 $7,501.84 $7,527.42 $-265.44
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $92.85 81 $7,521.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:35am ET $97.94 81 $7,933.14 $7,939.49 +$412.07
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $94.48 84 $7,936.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $101.13 84 $8,494.92 $8,498.09 +$558.60
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $106.76 79 $8,434.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:50pm ET $103.46 79 $8,173.73 $8,237.78 $-260.31
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $110.17 74 $8,152.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $106.56 74 $7,885.07 $7,970.27 $-267.51
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:10am ET $101.51 78 $7,917.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:30am ET $106.60 78 $8,314.62 $8,367.11 +$396.84
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $105.05 79 $8,298.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $113.58 79 $8,972.82 $9,040.98 +$673.87
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:50pm ET $123.04 73 $8,981.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $119.14 73 $8,697.10 $8,756.52 $-284.46
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:00pm ET $116.12 75 $8,709.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $112.50 75 $8,437.50 $8,485.02 $-271.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $112.58 75 $8,443.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $109.12 75 $8,184.00 $8,225.15 $-259.87
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $108.76 75 $8,157.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:25am ET $105.48 75 $7,911.00 $7,979.15 $-246.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 11:05am ET $106.65 74 $7,892.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $113.57 74 $8,404.55 $8,491.23 +$512.08
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $124.12 68 $8,440.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $119.79 68 $8,146.06 $8,197.14 $-294.09
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,197.14
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,802.86
Total Return: -18.03%
Back to Marcus Reversal