Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:43:48

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.7/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 30.1/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 29.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,347.58
Current Value
$13,457.24
Period P&L
$-2,890.35
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+5.38%
Worst Trade
-22.15%
Avg Trade Return
-1.12%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$402,141.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,890.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,890.35
Gross Return
-17.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,347.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $257.99 63 $16,253.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET $271.28 63 $17,090.64 $17,184.86 +$837.27
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $272.92 62 $16,920.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET $286.85 62 $17,784.70 $18,048.83 +$863.97
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $298.12 60 $17,887.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $285.37 60 $17,122.05 $17,283.68 $-765.15
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET $290.68 59 $17,150.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $226.30 59 $13,351.70 $13,485.26 $-3,798.42
(-22.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET $215.59 62 $13,366.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $206.16 62 $12,782.22 $12,900.90 $-584.36
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $215.56 59 $12,718.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $209.03 59 $12,332.77 $12,515.62 $-385.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $201.14 62 $12,470.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:10am ET $211.96 62 $13,141.21 $13,186.15 +$670.53
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $215.59 61 $13,150.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 12:35pm ET $226.45 61 $13,813.45 $13,848.61 +$662.46
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:45pm ET $227.40 60 $13,644.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 11:05am ET $220.56 60 $13,233.60 $13,438.21 $-410.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $226.46 59 $13,361.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $237.80 59 $14,030.20 $14,107.27 +$669.06
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $235.41 59 $13,889.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $228.25 59 $13,466.75 $13,684.83 $-422.44
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $230.67 59 $13,609.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $242.35 59 $14,298.36 $14,373.66 +$688.83
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $246.20 58 $14,279.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $238.03 58 $13,805.98 $13,900.04 $-473.62
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $234.15 59 $13,814.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET $226.64 59 $13,371.76 $13,457.24 $-442.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,457.24
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,457.24
Total Return: +34.57%
Back to Marcus Reversal