Compendium › Marcus Reversal › JNJ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
JNJ
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-09 to present • 4 trades in period

-5.42%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,321.98
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$15,142.38
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 06:55:12

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 8, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.0/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 39.3/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 31.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,142.38
Current Value
$14,321.98
Period P&L
$-820.37
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.10%
Worst Trade
-3.07%
Avg Trade Return
-1.33%
Avg Hold Time
20d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$117,886.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-820.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-820.37
Gross Return
-5.42%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,142.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET $238.39 63 $15,018.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $238.63 63 $15,033.69 $15,122.19 +$15.12
(+0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $242.40 62 $15,028.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 12:15pm ET $237.93 62 $14,751.66 $14,845.05 $-277.14
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $235.71 62 $14,614.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $234.53 62 $14,540.86 $14,771.89 $-73.16
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $229.29 64 $14,674.56 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:05am ET $222.26 64 $14,224.65 $14,321.98 $-449.91
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,321.98
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,321.98
Total Return: +43.22%
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