Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.2/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 20.2/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 19.5

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.6%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,982.20
Current Value
$12,317.70
Period P&L
$335.49
Max Drawdown
-36.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
5 / 6
Best Trade
+6.08%
Worst Trade
-3.88%
Avg Trade Return
+0.56%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$267,699.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$335.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$335.49
Gross Return
+2.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,982.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 1:40pm ET $1,107.78 10 $11,077.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:45am ET $1,175.14 10 $11,751.40 $12,510.01 +$673.65
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:25am ET $1,206.80 10 $12,067.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,160.01 10 $11,600.10 $12,042.16 $-467.85
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,146.75 10 $11,467.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET $1,204.61 10 $12,046.05 $12,620.71 +$578.55
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 12:00pm ET $1,219.51 10 $12,195.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $1,180.99 10 $11,809.95 $12,235.56 $-385.15
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $1,145.00 10 $11,450.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET $1,204.69 10 $12,046.90 $12,832.46 +$596.90
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:40am ET $1,176.74 10 $11,767.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET $1,236.99 10 $12,369.90 $13,434.96 +$602.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,216.96 11 $13,386.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET $1,174.62 11 $12,920.82 $12,969.22 $-465.74
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $1,190.51 10 $11,905.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $1,255.47 10 $12,554.70 $13,618.82 +$649.60
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET $1,262.55 10 $12,625.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $1,214.02 10 $12,140.20 $13,133.57 $-485.25
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $1,183.19 11 $13,015.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET $1,143.60 11 $12,579.60 $12,698.08 $-435.49
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET $1,150.12 11 $12,651.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 2:45pm ET $1,115.54 11 $12,270.94 $12,317.70 $-380.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,317.70
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,317.70
Total Return: +23.18%
Back to Marcus Reversal