LTCUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 41 trades in period
+56.84%
Last 3 Months Return
$642.24
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$288.01
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality
3.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
52
+20.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
20
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.4
Conf: 1.00×
Accelerating (+49 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,832
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$288.01
Current Value
$642.24
Period P&L
$163.70
Max Drawdown
-95.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
22 /
19
Best Trade
+5.60%
Worst Trade
-3.56%
Avg Trade Return
+1.35%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$39,446.75
Estimated Fees
$98.62
Gross P&L
$163.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$65.09
Gross Return
+56.84%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.60%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $288.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $42.40 | 9 | $384.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:40am ET | $41.05 | 9 | $371.94 | $371.94 |
$-14.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $40.84 | 9 | $371.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $39.53 | 9 | $360.01 | $360.01 |
$-13.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $39.44 | 9 | $360.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 12:55am ET | $41.46 | 9 | $378.45 | $378.45 |
+$16.59 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:40am ET | $41.70 | 9 | $378.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $40.39 | 9 | $366.56 | $366.56 |
$-13.75 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $39.77 | 9 | $366.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:10am ET | $41.83 | 9 | $385.55 | $385.55 |
+$17.11 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 4:20am ET | $41.46 | 9 | $385.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $43.60 | 9 | $405.45 | $405.45 |
+$17.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $43.39 | 9 | $405.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $45.58 | 9 | $425.91 | $425.91 |
+$18.39 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2026 2:45pm ET | $45.32 | 9 | $425.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:05am ET | $43.91 | 9 | $412.66 | $412.66 |
$-15.35 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:20am ET | $43.89 | 9 | $412.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $46.24 | 9 | $434.76 | $434.76 |
+$19.98 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.25 | 9 | $434.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2026 4:55am ET | $45.83 | 9 | $421.69 | $421.69 |
$-15.21 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2026 5:00am ET | $45.84 | 9 | $421.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 26, 2026 6:35pm ET | $48.19 | 9 | $443.31 | $443.31 |
+$19.46 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 26, 2026 7:30pm ET | $47.78 | 9 | $443.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $46.24 | 9 | $429.02 | $429.02 |
$-16.47 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $46.27 | 9 | $429.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $44.81 | 9 | $415.48 | $415.48 |
$-15.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $44.97 | 9 | $415.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:10pm ET | $43.61 | 9 | $402.91 | $402.91 |
$-14.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $43.38 | 9 | $402.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $45.81 | 9 | $425.48 | $425.48 |
+$20.50 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:45pm ET | $45.65 | 9 | $425.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $47.94 | 9 | $446.82 | $446.82 |
+$19.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 4:00pm ET | $47.84 | 9 | $446.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 4:10am ET | $50.51 | 9 | $471.76 | $471.76 |
+$22.64 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:50am ET | $50.09 | 9 | $471.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 5:55pm ET | $52.65 | 9 | $495.87 | $495.87 |
+$21.69 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:55pm ET | $53.14 | 9 | $495.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 2:35am ET | $51.49 | 9 | $480.47 | $480.47 |
$-17.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 4:30am ET | $51.36 | 9 | $480.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 6:20am ET | $54.05 | 9 | $505.63 | $505.63 |
+$22.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 7:20am ET | $52.86 | 10 | $505.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 5:55am ET | $51.19 | 10 | $489.66 | $489.66 |
$-18.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 8:00am ET | $51.09 | 10 | $489.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:00am ET | $49.51 | 10 | $474.52 | $474.52 |
$-17.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $49.33 | 10 | $474.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 30, 2026 7:50pm ET | $47.78 | 10 | $459.61 | $459.61 |
$-17.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:55pm ET | $47.82 | 10 | $459.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 11:00pm ET | $50.22 | 10 | $482.68 | $482.68 |
+$20.71 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 5:45am ET | $50.55 | 10 | $482.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2026 2:10am ET | $53.20 | 10 | $507.98 | $507.98 |
+$22.83 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2026 4:25am ET | $53.16 | 10 | $507.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 6, 2026 8:30pm ET | $55.99 | 10 | $535.02 | $535.02 |
+$24.44 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 6, 2026 9:35pm ET | $54.65 | 10 | $535.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 7, 2026 8:45am ET | $57.65 | 10 | $564.39 | $564.39 |
+$26.62 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $57.47 | 10 | $564.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $55.66 | 10 | $546.61 | $546.61 |
$-20.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 7, 2026 11:40am ET | $55.59 | 10 | $546.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:25pm ET | $53.91 | 10 | $530.09 | $530.09 |
$-19.21 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 11:30pm ET | $53.91 | 10 | $530.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 3:35am ET | $52.28 | 10 | $514.06 | $514.06 |
$-18.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 4:00am ET | $52.41 | 10 | $514.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $55.09 | 10 | $540.35 | $540.35 |
+$23.65 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $54.77 | 10 | $540.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 7:55pm ET | $53.12 | 10 | $524.07 | $524.07 |
$-18.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 8:00pm ET | $53.12 | 10 | $524.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $51.41 | 10 | $507.20 | $507.20 |
$-19.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $51.52 | 10 | $507.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 8:35pm ET | $54.31 | 10 | $534.67 | $534.67 |
+$24.86 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 6:15am ET | $55.55 | 10 | $534.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 8:05pm ET | $58.44 | 10 | $562.49 | $562.49 |
+$25.07 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:20pm ET | $57.70 | 10 | $562.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 7:45am ET | $60.60 | 10 | $590.76 | $590.76 |
+$25.39 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $62.06 | 10 | $590.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 6:20am ET | $60.15 | 10 | $572.58 | $572.58 |
$-21.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 6:25am ET | $59.84 | 10 | $572.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:20pm ET | $62.95 | 10 | $602.34 | $602.34 |
+$26.82 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 8:30pm ET | $62.92 | 10 | $602.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.68 | 10 | $580.90 | $580.90 |
$-24.40 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $59.94 | 10 | $580.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:20pm ET | $62.99 | 10 | $610.46 | $610.46 |
+$26.58 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 2:00am ET | $67.04 | 9 | $610.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $70.53 | 9 | $642.24 | $642.24 |
+$28.65 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$642.24
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,357.76
Total Return:
-93.58%