Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:11

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.5/35
Total Return
12.5/25
Win Rate
2.5/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 32.0/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 26.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,316.96
Current Value
$13,060.72
Period P&L
$743.75
Max Drawdown
-11.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
3 / 3
Best Trade
+5.71%
Worst Trade
-3.12%
Avg Trade Return
+1.17%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$148,902.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$743.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$743.75
Gross Return
+6.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,316.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $499.97 24 $11,999.28
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $528.50 24 $12,684.00 $12,946.73 +$684.72
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $513.96 25 $12,849.00
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:20am ET $498.52 25 $12,463.00 $12,560.73 $-386.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $500.37 25 $12,509.25
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET $484.77 25 $12,119.37 $12,170.85 $-389.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
28d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $475.55 25 $11,888.75
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 12:40pm ET $499.94 25 $12,498.50 $12,780.60 +$609.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $498.73 25 $12,468.25
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $483.75 25 $12,093.75 $12,406.10 $-374.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:25pm ET $493.48 25 $12,337.12
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET $519.67 25 $12,991.75 $13,060.72 +$654.62
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,060.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,060.72
Total Return: +30.61%
Back to Marcus Reversal