Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 30 trades in period

-34.66%
Last 3 Months Return
$3,112.23
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$4,763.40
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:06:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

4
-19.6%
30d Return
14%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,763.40
Current Value
$3,112.23
Period P&L
$-1,651.17
Max Drawdown
-58.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.30

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
8 / 22
Best Trade
+8.26%
Worst Trade
-8.15%
Avg Trade Return
-1.31%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$253,290.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,651.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,651.17
Gross Return
-34.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-34.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $4,763.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 3:25pm ET $13.65 349 $4,762.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:30am ET $14.37 349 $5,015.13 $5,016.42 +$253.02
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:45am ET $13.83 362 $5,006.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $13.38 362 $4,843.56 $4,853.52 $-162.90
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 10:35am ET $13.34 363 $4,842.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:05am ET $12.79 363 $4,642.81 $4,653.91 $-199.61
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:35am ET $12.93 359 $4,641.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET $12.38 359 $4,444.42 $4,456.42 $-197.49
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:00am ET $11.81 377 $4,450.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $12.78 377 $4,818.06 $4,823.99 +$367.57
(+8.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET $12.68 380 $4,816.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $12.27 380 $4,662.60 $4,670.09 $-153.90
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 12:40pm ET $12.02 388 $4,661.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:25am ET $11.64 388 $4,516.32 $4,524.59 $-145.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:25am ET $11.76 384 $4,513.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:45pm ET $11.32 384 $4,346.84 $4,357.51 $-167.08
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:25pm ET $10.77 404 $4,353.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $11.36 404 $4,591.46 $4,595.87 +$238.36
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $12.42 370 $4,595.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $11.92 370 $4,410.40 $4,410.87 $-185.00
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $12.14 363 $4,406.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET $12.88 363 $4,675.44 $4,679.49 +$268.62
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET $12.23 382 $4,669.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $11.77 382 $4,496.14 $4,505.68 $-173.81
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET $10.85 415 $4,504.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:25am ET $11.40 415 $4,730.92 $4,731.77 +$226.09
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
55m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 11:25am ET $10.55 448 $4,726.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:40pm ET $10.11 448 $4,531.52 $4,537.11 $-194.66
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $11.57 391 $4,525.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $11.10 391 $4,342.05 $4,353.34 $-183.77
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:15pm ET $11.71 371 $4,342.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 1:10pm ET $11.34 371 $4,205.29 $4,215.66 $-137.68
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 2:55pm ET $10.89 387 $4,212.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET $10.45 387 $4,044.15 $4,047.31 $-168.35
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 11:20am ET $9.64 420 $4,046.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $10.16 420 $4,266.78 $4,267.39 +$220.08
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.46 451 $4,266.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $9.01 451 $4,063.51 $4,064.44 $-202.95
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:15am ET $9.13 445 $4,062.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET $8.74 445 $3,889.30 $3,890.89 $-173.55
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $10.55 368 $3,880.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $11.18 368 $4,112.40 $4,122.73 +$231.84
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:45am ET $11.50 358 $4,117.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $11.13 358 $3,985.22 $3,990.95 $-131.78
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $11.87 336 $3,988.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $11.49 336 $3,862.32 $3,864.95 $-126.00
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $11.97 322 $3,854.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $11.58 322 $3,728.76 $3,739.37 $-125.58
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:50am ET $10.44 358 $3,735.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $10.03 358 $3,590.74 $3,594.38 $-144.99
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET $11.44 314 $3,590.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $12.01 314 $3,771.17 $3,774.96 +$180.58
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:10pm ET $11.89 317 $3,768.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $11.37 317 $3,604.29 $3,611.17 $-163.79
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $12.02 300 $3,606.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $11.04 300 $3,312.00 $3,317.14 $-294.03
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $11.27 294 $3,311.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $10.90 294 $3,204.60 $3,209.83 $-107.31
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
30 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:40am ET $13.31 241 $3,208.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $12.91 241 $3,111.31 $3,112.23 $-97.60
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,112.23
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,887.77
Total Return: -68.88%
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