Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 20:19:26

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 4.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 4.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,205.07
Current Value
$8,386.97
Period P&L
$181.91
Max Drawdown
-45.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+5.28%
Worst Trade
-3.29%
Avg Trade Return
+0.41%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$117,890.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$181.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$181.91
Gross Return
+2.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,205.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 1:05pm ET $123.52 66 $8,152.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:30pm ET $129.81 66 $8,567.46 $8,620.20 +$415.14
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET $128.22 67 $8,590.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $124.00 67 $8,308.00 $8,337.46 $-282.74
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET $121.82 68 $8,283.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 10:55am ET $127.95 68 $8,700.60 $8,754.30 +$416.84
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 11:50am ET $129.87 67 $8,701.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 11:35am ET $125.95 67 $8,438.65 $8,491.66 $-262.64
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 12:35pm ET $131.63 64 $8,424.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:35am ET $127.47 64 $8,158.08 $8,225.10 $-266.56
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 1:50pm ET $130.62 62 $8,098.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET $137.51 62 $8,525.93 $8,652.59 +$427.49
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $150.93 57 $8,603.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $146.27 57 $8,337.39 $8,386.97 $-265.62
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,386.97
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,613.03
Total Return: -16.13%
Back to Marcus Reversal