Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:42:46

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
7.1/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 12.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 12.6

30-Day Momentum

44
+15.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.2 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,433.11
Current Value
$11,181.66
Period P&L
$2,748.49
Max Drawdown
-73.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
14 / 15
Best Trade
+10.63%
Worst Trade
-6.21%
Avg Trade Return
+1.12%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$512,966.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,748.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,748.49
Gross Return
+32.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+32.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,433.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 12:20pm ET $66.75 126 $8,410.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $72.11 126 $9,085.86 $9,108.53 +$675.36
(+8.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $72.91 124 $9,040.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:40am ET $76.58 124 $9,496.54 $9,564.23 +$455.70
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $82.73 115 $9,513.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $79.27 115 $9,116.05 $9,166.87 $-397.36
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:05am ET $75.41 121 $9,124.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET $70.72 121 $8,557.72 $8,599.98 $-566.89
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $66.00 130 $8,580.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:10am ET $69.37 130 $9,018.11 $9,038.09 +$438.11
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:20am ET $66.43 136 $9,034.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 11:45am ET $64.37 136 $8,754.32 $8,757.93 $-280.16
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:15pm ET $61.99 141 $8,741.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:15pm ET $60.13 141 $8,478.33 $8,494.97 $-262.96
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 12:25pm ET $58.69 144 $8,451.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:25am ET $56.79 144 $8,177.76 $8,221.37 $-273.60
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 2:35pm ET $54.14 151 $8,174.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET $56.88 151 $8,589.63 $8,636.32 +$414.95
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:00am ET $53.69 160 $8,589.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:40am ET $56.53 160 $9,044.43 $9,091.15 +$454.83
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 11:35am ET $56.42 161 $9,084.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET $52.92 161 $8,520.12 $8,526.84 $-564.31
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET $56.50 150 $8,475.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET $54.80 150 $8,220.00 $8,271.84 $-255.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 3:25pm ET $58.22 142 $8,267.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:40am ET $61.40 142 $8,718.80 $8,723.40 +$451.56
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET $64.01 136 $8,705.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET $61.71 136 $8,392.56 $8,410.60 $-312.80
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 11:35am ET $64.42 130 $8,374.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 11:00am ET $62.31 130 $8,100.30 $8,136.30 $-274.30
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 11:35am ET $141.18 57 $8,046.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:50pm ET $149.04 57 $8,495.00 $8,584.32 +$448.02
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:50pm ET $130.57 65 $8,486.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET $144.45 65 $9,389.25 $9,486.84 +$902.52
(+10.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:55am ET $136.64 69 $9,428.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:20am ET $132.21 69 $9,122.83 $9,181.51 $-305.33
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $150.50 61 $9,180.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 2:00pm ET $145.83 61 $8,895.87 $8,896.88 $-284.63
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:15pm ET $140.56 63 $8,855.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $136.02 63 $8,569.57 $8,611.17 $-285.71
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:55pm ET $140.77 61 $8,587.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:40pm ET $136.53 61 $8,328.33 $8,352.42 $-258.75
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $151.21 55 $8,316.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:05pm ET $146.64 55 $8,065.20 $8,100.80 $-251.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:05pm ET $143.21 56 $8,020.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $153.62 56 $8,602.72 $8,683.48 +$582.68
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:05am ET $142.76 60 $8,565.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET $137.68 60 $8,260.99 $8,378.87 $-304.61
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $132.08 63 $8,321.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET $140.14 63 $8,828.78 $8,886.61 +$507.74
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $143.07 62 $8,870.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $152.56 62 $9,458.72 $9,475.00 +$588.39
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:25am ET $154.13 61 $9,401.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET $163.43 61 $9,968.93 $10,041.99 +$566.99
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $170.90 58 $9,912.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:20am ET $180.83 58 $10,488.14 $10,617.93 +$575.94
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
40m held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:00am ET $185.07 57 $10,548.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $194.96 57 $11,112.72 $11,181.66 +$563.73
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,181.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,181.66
Total Return: +11.82%
Back to Marcus Reversal