Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:06:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 20.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 20.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,565.41
Current Value
$12,007.42
Period P&L
$-1,557.99
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
3 / 8
Best Trade
+5.33%
Worst Trade
-4.68%
Avg Trade Return
-1.13%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$288,387.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,557.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,557.99
Gross Return
-11.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,565.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 12:35pm ET $226.03 60 $13,561.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $215.45 60 $12,926.70 $13,046.11 $-635.10
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:00pm ET $213.32 61 $13,012.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:35am ET $224.18 61 $13,674.98 $13,708.57 +$662.46
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $220.02 62 $13,641.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET $231.74 62 $14,367.88 $14,435.21 +$726.64
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:35am ET $227.25 63 $14,316.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $218.34 63 $13,755.11 $13,873.57 $-561.64
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $217.10 63 $13,677.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $210.40 63 $13,255.20 $13,451.47 $-422.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 1:20pm ET $218.45 61 $13,325.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $211.34 61 $12,891.74 $13,017.76 $-433.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $213.79 60 $12,827.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET $206.60 60 $12,396.00 $12,586.36 $-431.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $209.74 60 $12,584.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $220.35 60 $13,221.00 $13,222.96 +$636.60
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 11:55am ET $216.62 61 $13,213.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 1:45pm ET $210.06 61 $12,813.66 $12,823.10 $-399.86
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $214.65 59 $12,664.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $207.50 59 $12,242.50 $12,401.25 $-421.85
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $206.88 59 $12,205.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:15am ET $200.21 59 $11,812.10 $12,007.42 $-393.83
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,007.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,007.42
Total Return: +20.07%
Back to Marcus Reversal