Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:15:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.0/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 42.8/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 38.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,637.23
Current Value
$18,468.53
Period P&L
$4,831.28
Max Drawdown
-21.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.52

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+14.26%
Worst Trade
-3.43%
Avg Trade Return
+2.89%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$324,545.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,831.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,831.28
Gross Return
+35.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+35.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,637.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:35am ET $373.10 37 $13,804.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $360.31 37 $13,331.47 $13,650.20 $-473.23
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:55am ET $374.04 36 $13,465.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $393.19 36 $14,154.84 $14,339.59 +$689.39
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $382.69 37 $14,159.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:50pm ET $403.52 37 $14,930.24 $15,110.30 +$770.71
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $391.10 38 $14,861.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET $379.30 38 $14,413.40 $14,661.90 $-448.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $382.34 38 $14,528.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $436.88 38 $16,601.25 $16,734.23 +$2,072.33
(+14.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $450.00 37 $16,650.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $476.93 37 $17,646.41 $17,730.64 +$996.41
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $481.45 36 $17,332.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:50am ET $506.69 36 $18,240.84 $18,639.28 +$908.64
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET $500.83 37 $18,530.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:50am ET $485.74 37 $17,972.56 $18,081.14 $-558.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 12:55pm ET $484.68 37 $17,933.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:45am ET $511.13 37 $18,911.81 $19,059.61 +$978.47
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $509.01 37 $18,833.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $493.04 37 $18,242.30 $18,468.53 $-591.08
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,468.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,468.53
Total Return: +84.69%
Back to Marcus Reversal