Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 28 trades in period

+7.31%
Last 3 Months Return
$55,706.46
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$51,913.13
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:13:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.1/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
3.3/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 69.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 69.0

30-Day Momentum

63
+18.6%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
5
Trades
4.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 89.3 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$51,913.13
Current Value
$55,706.46
Period P&L
$3,793.36
Max Drawdown
-27.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
13 / 15
Best Trade
+8.31%
Worst Trade
-8.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,595,074.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,793.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,793.36
Gross Return
+7.31%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $51,913.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 10:45am ET $1,158.25 44 $50,962.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 12:15pm ET $1,217.06 44 $53,550.42 $54,500.53 +$2,587.43
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $1,166.41 46 $53,654.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $1,124.84 46 $51,742.64 $52,588.31 $-1,912.22
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:15pm ET $1,145.99 45 $51,569.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,073.73 45 $48,317.85 $49,336.62 $-3,251.69
(-6.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET $1,010.24 48 $48,491.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $979.58 48 $47,019.60 $47,864.70 $-1,471.92
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $998.94 47 $46,950.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $917.57 47 $43,125.79 $44,040.31 $-3,824.39
(-8.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:05am ET $934.71 47 $43,931.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,012.41 47 $47,583.27 $47,692.21 +$3,651.90
(+8.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $961.78 49 $47,127.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $929.94 49 $45,567.06 $46,132.05 $-1,560.16
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $975.48 47 $45,847.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:10am ET $945.67 47 $44,446.49 $44,730.98 $-1,401.07
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:20am ET $873.12 51 $44,529.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:15pm ET $846.75 51 $43,184.25 $43,386.11 $-1,344.87
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:15pm ET $876.62 49 $42,954.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $923.13 49 $45,233.37 $45,665.10 +$2,278.99
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $940.77 48 $45,156.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET $990.18 48 $47,528.45 $48,036.73 +$2,371.63
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET $946.30 50 $47,315.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 2:30pm ET $916.64 50 $45,832.00 $46,553.73 $-1,483.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $844.54 55 $46,449.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:45am ET $814.83 55 $44,815.38 $44,919.41 $-1,634.32
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:40am ET $784.72 57 $44,729.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $760.80 57 $43,365.60 $43,555.97 $-1,363.44
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET $846.65 51 $43,178.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $782.70 51 $39,917.45 $40,294.52 $-3,261.45
(-7.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $883.10 45 $39,739.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $927.52 45 $41,738.40 $42,293.42 +$1,998.90
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $890.37 47 $41,847.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $858.00 47 $40,326.00 $40,772.03 $-1,521.39
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 11:15am ET $872.03 46 $40,113.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $916.79 46 $42,172.34 $42,830.99 +$2,058.96
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $912.20 46 $41,961.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 10:55am ET $959.85 46 $44,153.10 $45,022.89 +$2,191.90
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 11:20am ET $968.36 46 $44,544.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:00am ET $1,024.66 46 $47,134.36 $47,612.68 +$2,589.79
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:00am ET $960.24 49 $47,052.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 2:10pm ET $930.18 49 $45,578.93 $46,139.62 $-1,473.06
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 2:10pm ET $923.80 49 $45,266.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $970.59 49 $47,558.67 $48,431.84 +$2,292.22
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $935.35 51 $47,702.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $906.79 51 $46,246.54 $46,975.54 $-1,456.30
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:25pm ET $924.90 50 $46,245.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $974.49 50 $48,724.50 $49,455.04 +$2,479.50
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,016.13 48 $48,774.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:15am ET $985.52 48 $47,304.96 $47,985.76 $-1,469.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $909.68 52 $47,303.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $955.18 52 $49,669.36 $50,351.76 +$2,366.00
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 11:20am ET $990.90 50 $49,545.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,044.75 50 $52,237.50 $53,044.26 +$2,692.50
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $1,033.28 51 $52,697.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:15pm ET $1,085.48 51 $55,359.49 $55,706.46 +$2,662.20
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $55,706.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$45,706.46
Total Return: +457.06%
Back to Marcus Reversal