Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:33:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.3/35
Total Return
16.8/25
Win Rate
3.6/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 39.4/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 38.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-2.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$18,839.23
Current Value
$20,472.33
Period P&L
$1,633.08
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+5.32%
Worst Trade
-12.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
6.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$390,914.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,633.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,633.08
Gross Return
+8.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.67%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $18,839.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET $72.66 264 $19,180.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:20am ET $76.34 264 $20,153.76 $20,186.97 +$972.81
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:20am ET $76.03 265 $20,146.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $73.62 265 $19,509.30 $19,549.65 $-637.32
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 10:50am ET $74.78 261 $19,516.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $65.44 261 $17,081.14 $17,114.52 $-2,435.13
(-12.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $68.30 250 $17,075.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $71.93 250 $17,982.50 $18,022.02 +$907.50
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $72.25 249 $17,991.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $75.97 249 $18,916.53 $18,947.06 +$925.04
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.3d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET $73.99 256 $18,941.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $77.93 256 $19,949.29 $19,954.91 +$1,007.85
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET $77.00 259 $19,943.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:50am ET $80.87 259 $20,945.36 $20,957.27 +$1,002.36
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET $79.68 263 $20,954.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET $76.43 263 $20,101.12 $20,103.86 $-853.41
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $76.22 263 $20,045.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:55am ET $80.04 263 $21,050.52 $21,108.52 +$1,004.66
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:55am ET $78.19 269 $21,033.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $75.82 269 $20,396.92 $20,472.33 $-636.19
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,472.33
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,472.33
Total Return: +104.72%
Back to Marcus Reversal