Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:35:24

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.5%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,984.30
Current Value
$4,677.43
Period P&L
$-1,306.90
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
3 / 12
Best Trade
+7.88%
Worst Trade
-4.60%
Avg Trade Return
-1.56%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$166,980.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,306.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,306.90
Gross Return
-21.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,984.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $5.01 1,193 $5,982.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $4.84 1,193 $5,768.16 $5,769.59 $-214.74
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 12:45pm ET $4.78 1,207 $5,769.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 10:10am ET $5.03 1,207 $6,065.18 $6,065.30 +$295.71
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 12:00pm ET $4.99 1,215 $6,062.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.82 1,215 $5,862.37 $5,864.83 $-200.47
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $5.01 1,170 $5,862.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET $4.86 1,170 $5,686.20 $5,688.28 $-176.55
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:50am ET $4.78 1,190 $5,686.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $5.16 1,190 $6,134.45 $6,136.32 +$448.04
(+7.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:25am ET $5.11 1,200 $6,131.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.88 1,200 $5,850.00 $5,854.44 $-281.88
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:40am ET $4.87 1,202 $5,853.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET $4.70 1,202 $5,647.24 $5,647.94 $-206.50
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 11:10am ET $4.63 1,219 $5,643.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:15pm ET $4.49 1,219 $5,468.92 $5,472.89 $-175.05
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $4.67 1,171 $5,468.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:40am ET $4.91 1,171 $5,749.49 $5,753.81 +$280.92
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:40am ET $4.71 1,221 $5,750.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET $4.57 1,221 $5,574.84 $5,577.74 $-176.07
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $4.72 1,181 $5,574.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $4.51 1,181 $5,332.21 $5,335.64 $-242.10
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET $4.56 1,170 $5,335.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 11:35am ET $4.41 1,170 $5,165.55 $5,165.99 $-169.65
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:10pm ET $4.44 1,163 $5,163.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET $4.30 1,163 $5,006.71 $5,008.98 $-157.01
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:30pm ET $4.03 1,244 $5,007.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $3.90 1,244 $4,849.73 $4,851.61 $-157.37
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:50am ET $3.74 1,295 $4,849.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $3.61 1,295 $4,675.60 $4,677.43 $-174.18
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,677.43
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,322.57
Total Return: -53.23%
Back to Marcus Reversal