Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.0

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.6 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,869.62
Current Value
$18,637.06
Period P&L
$-1,232.64
Max Drawdown
-43.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
5 / 9
Best Trade
+5.32%
Worst Trade
-4.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.40%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$532,642.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,232.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,232.64
Gross Return
-6.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $19,869.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $199.67 99 $19,767.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $193.13 99 $19,120.36 $19,284.11 $-646.97
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:40pm ET $193.97 99 $19,203.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $204.25 99 $20,220.75 $20,301.83 +$1,017.72
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 2:50pm ET $209.93 96 $20,152.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 2:30pm ET $203.44 96 $19,530.24 $19,679.27 $-622.56
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:25am ET $208.90 94 $19,636.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $199.43 94 $18,746.42 $18,789.09 $-890.18
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET $205.26 91 $18,678.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $198.98 91 $18,107.18 $18,217.61 $-571.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET $194.22 93 $18,062.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:10am ET $204.24 93 $18,994.32 $19,149.47 +$931.86
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:15am ET $219.46 87 $19,092.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $212.22 87 $18,463.14 $18,520.02 $-629.45
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 10:55am ET $211.30 87 $18,383.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $222.06 87 $19,319.22 $19,455.71 +$935.69
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $224.19 86 $19,280.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $216.93 86 $18,656.41 $18,831.78 $-623.93
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:55pm ET $218.32 86 $18,775.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $229.93 86 $19,773.97 $19,829.80 +$998.02
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET $230.15 86 $19,793.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $220.55 86 $18,967.30 $19,003.77 $-826.03
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:00am ET $219.42 86 $18,870.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 86 $18,163.20 $18,296.85 $-706.92
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $212.22 86 $18,250.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $222.98 86 $19,176.28 $19,222.21 +$925.36
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 2:15pm ET $229.16 83 $19,020.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $222.12 83 $18,435.55 $18,637.06 $-585.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,637.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,637.06
Total Return: +86.37%
Back to Marcus Reversal