Compendium › Marcus Reversal › ORCL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ORCL
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 23 trades in period

-13.30%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,136.16
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$10,537.93
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:14:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 5.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

29
+8.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.0 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,537.93
Current Value
$9,136.16
Period P&L
$-1,401.78
Max Drawdown
-51.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
8 / 15
Best Trade
+6.47%
Worst Trade
-7.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.62%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$435,747.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,401.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,401.78
Gross Return
-13.30%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,537.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $168.27 64 $10,769.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $162.27 64 $10,385.28 $10,408.34 $-384.00
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $153.34 67 $10,273.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $147.33 67 $9,871.11 $10,006.00 $-402.34
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 11:00am ET $144.99 69 $10,004.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:55am ET $140.57 69 $9,699.33 $9,701.16 $-304.84
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $143.70 67 $9,627.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $138.31 67 $9,266.77 $9,340.03 $-361.13
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $138.22 67 $9,260.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET $145.87 67 $9,772.96 $9,852.25 +$512.22
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $141.51 69 $9,764.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET $136.83 69 $9,441.27 $9,529.33 $-322.92
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:55am ET $129.34 73 $9,441.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.22 73 $9,141.06 $9,228.57 $-300.76
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.82 73 $9,184.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET $121.76 73 $8,888.48 $8,932.10 $-296.47
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 11:00am ET $126.26 70 $8,838.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET $122.07 70 $8,544.90 $8,638.45 $-293.65
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:45am ET $117.32 73 $8,564.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $123.26 73 $8,997.98 $9,071.71 +$433.26
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET $127.79 70 $8,945.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $135.51 70 $9,485.63 $9,612.05 +$540.34
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 2:15pm ET $146.92 65 $9,549.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $140.11 65 $9,107.15 $9,169.40 $-442.65
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 1:00pm ET $145.06 63 $9,138.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $153.13 63 $9,647.19 $9,677.81 +$508.41
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:20am ET $155.67 62 $9,651.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 2:15pm ET $150.62 62 $9,338.44 $9,364.71 $-313.10
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $143.39 65 $9,320.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $138.38 65 $8,994.70 $9,039.06 $-325.65
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET $142.18 63 $8,957.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $150.95 63 $9,509.85 $9,591.57 +$552.51
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET $149.23 64 $9,550.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $143.98 64 $9,214.72 $9,255.89 $-335.68
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $144.00 64 $9,216.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:20am ET $151.21 64 $9,677.44 $9,717.33 +$461.44
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:00pm ET $157.56 61 $9,611.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 61 $10,232.75 $10,338.92 +$621.59
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $162.68 63 $10,249.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 63 $9,938.25 $10,028.02 $-310.90
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:05am ET $152.79 65 $9,931.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $141.48 65 $9,196.20 $9,293.19 $-734.83
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $141.14 65 $9,174.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $148.68 65 $9,664.20 $9,783.29 +$490.10
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $146.63 66 $9,677.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $136.82 66 $9,030.12 $9,136.16 $-647.13
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,136.16
Net Profit/Loss: $-863.84
Total Return: -8.64%
Back to Marcus Reversal